Pakistan’s demographic genie

SHAHID JAVED BURKI, former finance minister of Pakistan reviews the trends in Pakistan’s demographics and population policies in the wake of its six-fold growth in population since its inception in 1947 with a forecast of a further doubling over the next four decades for “Reaping the Dividend”, a joint study by Woodrow Wilson center’s Asia program and the fellowship fund of Pakistan.

In his wide-ranging essay titled “Historical trends in Pakistan’s demographics and population policy”, he reviews the historical trends in Pakistan’s population trajectory, the effects of large-scale migration and diasporas, growth projections, rapid urbanization and alternate future scenarios of reaping either a demographic dividend or a catastrophe for the population, which, at a median age of 21 was one of the youngest in the world.

He states that it was imperative for Islamabad to conduct a population census coupled with a household survey and then design an urban policy to enhance the human capital of the population and also address the issues arising out of rapid urbanization, failure of which would result in a high cost for Pakistan.

Another Persian Gulf??

SELIG S HARRISON, Director at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars provides a brief analysis of the various legal and jursdictional issues related to the treasure trove of untapped seabed oil and gas in the vast expanse of the East China Sea between China and Japan and the Yellow Sea between China and the Koreas and the motives of the Chinese, Japanese, and Korean players. In a study for the Project on Oil and Gas Cooperation in Northeast Asia, "Seabed Petroleum in Northeast Asia: Conflict or Cooperation?", he states that although agreement on a joint exploration zone was impeded by conflicting positions between Japan and China, the two Governments could authorize their oil companies to conduct seismic surveys, exploratory drilling, exchange data and negotiate terms of production operations and profit sharing while the conflicts were being resolved.