CHENG LI fellow at Brookings' John L Thornton China Center states that the composition of China's new Politburo standing committee (PSC) expected to be announced in the fall of 2012 as part of a major leadership turnover at the CCP's 18th National Congress, their generational attributes, individual idiosyncratic characteristics, group dynamics, and factional balance of power would have profound implications for China's economic priorities, social stability, political trajectory and foreign relations. In an article for The Washington Quarterly, "The Battle for China's Top Nine Leadership Posts", he analyzes the individuals in the reckoning for the PSC, the selection process, political and professional backgrounds, potential factions, political strategies, economic, socio-political and foreign policy agenda and states that addressing these questions was essential now more than ever before due to the influence China has on the world economy and regional security.
He argues that although there was broad agreement on the basics such as China's socio-economic stability, survival of CCP rule and enhanced international status for China, factional divides within the leadership and the balance of power between two competing complementary coalitions - the elitist 'taizidang' faction led by Xi Jinping and the populist 'tuanpai' faction led by Li Keqiang would shape the new PSC membership with the coalitions representing different socio-economic and geographic constituencies and bringing together different expertise and credentials.
He states that 14 leaders stood out among their peers as the leading candidates for the next PSC and also states that China’s future political and economic direction may well hinge on how well its leaders, particularly the most powerful making up the new PSC, succeed or fail at working together to search for a safe, sound, and sustainable political system.
He argues that although there was broad agreement on the basics such as China's socio-economic stability, survival of CCP rule and enhanced international status for China, factional divides within the leadership and the balance of power between two competing complementary coalitions - the elitist 'taizidang' faction led by Xi Jinping and the populist 'tuanpai' faction led by Li Keqiang would shape the new PSC membership with the coalitions representing different socio-economic and geographic constituencies and bringing together different expertise and credentials.
He states that 14 leaders stood out among their peers as the leading candidates for the next PSC and also states that China’s future political and economic direction may well hinge on how well its leaders, particularly the most powerful making up the new PSC, succeed or fail at working together to search for a safe, sound, and sustainable political system.
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