FRANCOIS GODEMENT, YANG CHAN, JEAN-PIERRE CABESTAN, JÉRÔME DOYON, ROMAIN LAFARGUETTE of the Asia Centre, Sciences Po, analyze content in Chinese language publications in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan to state that China's Faustian pact of miraculous export growth in exchange for huge external dependence was unravelling and rebalancing of the economy towards domestic growth was not necessarily easy as much of China’s domestic investment went into massive infrastructure projects and real estate deals which did not necessarily enhance consumer demand.
In a China Analysis article for the European Council for Foreign Relations, "One or two Chinese models?", they document the emergence of two economic models, a Chongqing model led by Bo Xilai and supported by Xi Jinping and Zhou Yongkang, characterized by massive infrastructure spending that could be recouped in the long-term through economic growth and a Guangdong model led by Wang Yang supported by Hu Jintao and Li Keqiang, characterized by a legal and market-based transition. These were further complicated by the jostling for key positions by these factions in the politburo standing committee.
They also state that although it was hard to predict how the debate could unfold, it was clear that China was investing into the next wave of export-led growth, mobilising its inland assets and negating the effects of rising wages, labor shortages and ageing. They caution that a slowdown in international demand could make these investments very risky and the debate could transcend economics into power politics and how best to preserve the legitimacy of the CCP rule against strong headwinds.
In a China Analysis article for the European Council for Foreign Relations, "One or two Chinese models?", they document the emergence of two economic models, a Chongqing model led by Bo Xilai and supported by Xi Jinping and Zhou Yongkang, characterized by massive infrastructure spending that could be recouped in the long-term through economic growth and a Guangdong model led by Wang Yang supported by Hu Jintao and Li Keqiang, characterized by a legal and market-based transition. These were further complicated by the jostling for key positions by these factions in the politburo standing committee.
They also state that although it was hard to predict how the debate could unfold, it was clear that China was investing into the next wave of export-led growth, mobilising its inland assets and negating the effects of rising wages, labor shortages and ageing. They caution that a slowdown in international demand could make these investments very risky and the debate could transcend economics into power politics and how best to preserve the legitimacy of the CCP rule against strong headwinds.
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