The end-game in Afghanistan

In a round-table discussion on Afghanistan organized by the Takshashila Foundation, SUMIT GANGULY, SHANTHIE MARIET D'SOUZA and MUKUL ASHER  provided the U.S., Indian and economic perspectives of the current situation in Af-Pak, implications of a U.S. withdrawal from the region starting 2011 and policy options for India.  The panelists brought out the fact that although New Delhi viewed the U.S. presence as ideal to its own security calculus, it had little leverage in ensuring a continued presence. Washington's and New Delhi's interest in Afghanistan was mostly from a security angle and the economic angle in terms of Central Asian gas reserves was less prominent. New Delhi drew a strong distinction between re-integration of the Taliban, i.e. socio-economic accomodation which it was in favor of and reconciliation which meant a political role for the Taliban in Kabul which it was totally against. In the wake of the targeting of Indian personnel in Afghanistan, New Delhi would not quit although its armed contingent was modest. It would expand its current economic assistance program to include microfinance in partnership with Bangladesh.  One commonly asked question was the idea of promoting nationalism among the Baloch, Pashtun and Sindhi communities in Pakistan as a response.

Fixing the fiefdom

MUKUL ASHER states that the main function of the Indian Railways was to provide rail transport related services with the least economic resource costs to the society and that they had to rely on multiple options including internal projects, contracts and PPP to deliver on the revenue target of 3% of the GDP. In an opinion piece in DNA, "For PPPs to work, Railways must change mindset", he concludes that the push towards PPP was doomed to fail in the absence of multiple enabling measures including accrual-based accounting, modern budgeting and management information systems, competition, revamped incentive structures and absorption of new technologies.

Consequences of Af-Pak failure

BHARAT VERMA, Editor of the Indian Defence Review paints a pessimistic picture of an Asia in 2020 engulfed by authoritarian regimes such as Islamic fundamentalists, communist dictatorships, military junta and non-state actors who would then redraw international boundaries. In an article, "Unprepared and Unwilling", he states that the situation was a Catch-22 with neither the West nor India could prevail without each other's assistance and calls for India to provide boots on the ground in Af-Pak in exchange for a change in U.S. focus towards Islamabad as otherwise India would be faced with a simultaneous threat on two-fronts and an internal insurgency.

Asian leadership

KISHORE MAHBUBANI and SIMON CHESTERMAN point to an evolution in Asian thinking characterized by pragmatism and an open attitude towards multilateralism with a focus on effectiveness of institutions rather than their legitimacy and acceptance of Western domination of global institutions. In an article for The Japan Times, "Pragmatic Asia can bolster global stability", they argue that this pragmatic approach has led to an Asian capability for leadership in such diverse challenges as peace and security, climate change, financial regulation, health, and social enterprises.

It takes two to tango!!

Nikolas Gvosdev of the US Naval War College states that although the U.S. intelligence community have agreed that multipolarity would be the future, Washington policymakers had not made the strategic choices necessary to guarantee continued U.S. global leadership such as wooing emerging powers such as Brazil and India that were not currently aligned either with the Euro-Atlantic West or with China. In an article in The World Politics Review, "Shaping the Multipolar World", he questions the prevailing assumption that at the end of the day, such powers would automatically align with U.S. interests absent a U.S. effort to nurture the relationship.

Dial 311 for deterrence

James Wood Forsyth Jr, Col B. Chance Saltzman, and Gary Schaub Jr discuss the concept of deterrence in international political relations and the diminishing returns with nuclear weapons and state that a small, secure nuclear force had the effect of 'sanctuarizing' the states that possess them. In an article for the Strategic Studies Quarterly, "Remembrance of Things Past The Enduring Value of Nuclear Weapons", they argue that the United States could have nuclear security with a small force of only 311 nuclear weapons in their force structure while continuing to maintain stable deterrence irrespective of the behavior of competitors such as Russia or China. They also express skepticism over the practicality of a nuclear zero arguing that nuclear weapons socialize statesmen to the dangers of adventurism and constrained their behavior resulting in a relationship tempered by caution despite the rhetoric of the leaders.

Wait and watch

SUSHANT SAREEN of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses argues that although an American exit from Afghanistan would in the worst case lead to a "terrorists r us" AfPak with India needing to work towards preventing the fallout, it might actually be a good thing in the post 9-11 world. In an IDSA Comments article, "AfPak dialectics can work in India’s favour", he argues that an American exit would ensure enhanced strategic leverage of the US over Pakistan with Pakistan being caught in a Catch-22 situation either bowing to international dictates on rooting jihadists or risk international isolation.

India's strategic role against global jihad

WALID PHARES, Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies states the global salafist jihadi network would continue to expand, co-ordinate and assist each other against their foes most of whom were constrained by a lack of similar co-operation against jihadi terror as well as confusion regarding separatist conflicts which were often construed as resistance movements and not terrorism. In a speech to the Asian Security Conference 2010 at New Delhi, "The Future of Terrorism: Jihadi threat in the Indian Subcontinent", he proposes internationalization of the counter-jihadi strategy where India could play a significant part in the region in integrating the resources of democracies in the region and eventually of all jihadi-targeted countries.

Rise of the Ottoman Phoenix

PHILIP MCCRUM states that a confluence of factors such as size, geography, religion and ethnicity were conferring Turkey with greater regional authority guaranteeing the rise of the Ottoman phoenix enhancing its national interests. In an analysis for the International Relations and Security Network (ISN), "Turkey’s Expanding Geopolitical Reach",he predicts that Turkey's strategic position at the crossroads of a diversified east-west natural gas supply network as well as its leadership position in the Muslim world as the largest Islamic economic power ensured greater geostrategic significance that even its domestic squabbles could not overcome.