Rawalpindi-Riyadh embrace

BRUCE RIEDEL, fellow at Brookings' Saban Center states that understanding the Saudi-Pakistani relationship was important to understand the future of both the countries, the nuclear balance in Near East and South Asia and the crisis in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia today.
In an op-ed for Force, "Enduring Allies", he states that Riyadh-Rawalpindi relationship was a longstanding, intimate alliance, with a decades-old strategic military relationship, an as yet unacknowledged nuclear partnership to provide Riyadh with a nuclear deterrent at short notice, if needed.
He states that Pakistan was the largest recipient of Saudi aid outside the Arab world and the Pakistani madarsa system was funded by the kingdom's Wahabbi clergy while Rawalpindi provided military expertise and resources, augmented by close intelligence and security relations and apprehensions about a Shia Iran.
He concludes that turmoil both in the Arab World as well as Pakistan and tensions with Washington were impelling the House of Saud and Pakistan towards even closer partnership.

Tehran-Washington slow dance

SUZANNE MALONEY, fellow at the Brookings’ Saban Center for Middle East Policy examines the forces that have conspired to keep Washington and Teheran trapped in conflict, and offered a forecast on the future evolution of the standoff in the wake of epic change unfolding across the Middle East.
In her article for Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI), "Tehran and Washington: A Motionless Relationship?", she states that although Washington has relied heavily on economic sanctions to influence Iran's policies and options, it also experimented with a variety of tactics ranging all the way from back-channel inducements to undeclared warfare depending on cyclical changes in the philosophical, partisan and practical considerations that shaped its approach to Iran.
She states that Iran's oil revenues insulated the Iranian regime, allowed it to exploit the sanctions and also allowed Beijing an uncontested access to Iran's energy sector with Beijing now indispensable in influencing Teheran. She concludes that the current U.S. approach while having impeded Iran's most problematic policies, hadn't altered the regime's political calculus and intensified the Iranian threat.

jiuchangwei

CHENG LI fellow at Brookings' John L Thornton China Center states that the composition of China's new Politburo standing committee (PSC) expected to be announced in the fall of 2012 as part of a major leadership turnover at the CCP's 18th National Congress, their generational attributes, individual idiosyncratic characteristics, group dynamics, and factional balance of power would have profound implications for China's economic priorities, social stability, political trajectory and foreign relations. In an article for The Washington Quarterly, "The Battle for China's Top Nine Leadership Posts", he analyzes the individuals in the reckoning for the PSC, the selection process, political and professional backgrounds, potential factions, political strategies, economic, socio-political and foreign policy agenda and states that addressing these questions was essential now more than ever before due to the influence China has on the world economy and regional security.
He argues that although there was broad agreement on the basics such as China's socio-economic stability, survival of CCP rule and enhanced international status for China, factional divides within the leadership and the balance of power between two competing complementary coalitions - the elitist 'taizidang' faction led by Xi Jinping and the populist 'tuanpai' faction led by Li Keqiang would shape the new PSC membership  with the coalitions representing different socio-economic and geographic constituencies and bringing together different expertise and credentials.
He states that 14 leaders stood out among their peers as the leading candidates for the next PSC and also states that China’s future political and economic direction may well hinge on how well its leaders, particularly the most powerful making up the new PSC, succeed or fail at working together to search for a safe, sound, and sustainable political system.

Chongqing vs Guangdong

FRANCOIS GODEMENT, YANG CHAN, JEAN-PIERRE CABESTAN, JÉRÔME DOYON, ROMAIN LAFARGUETTE of the Asia Centre, Sciences Po, analyze content in Chinese language publications in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan to state that China's Faustian pact of miraculous export growth in exchange for huge external dependence was unravelling and rebalancing of the economy towards domestic growth was not necessarily easy as much of China’s domestic investment went into massive infrastructure projects and real estate deals which did not necessarily enhance consumer demand.
In a China Analysis article for the European Council for Foreign Relations, "One or two Chinese models?", they document the emergence of two economic models, a Chongqing model led by Bo Xilai and supported by Xi Jinping and Zhou Yongkang, characterized by massive infrastructure spending that could be recouped in the long-term through economic growth and a Guangdong model led by Wang Yang supported by Hu Jintao and Li Keqiang, characterized by a legal and market-based transition. These were further complicated by the jostling for key positions by these factions in the politburo standing committee.
They also state that although it was hard to predict how the debate could unfold, it was clear that China was investing into the next wave of export-led growth, mobilising its inland assets and negating the effects of rising wages, labor shortages and ageing. They caution that a slowdown in international demand could make these investments very risky and the debate could transcend economics into power politics and how best to preserve the legitimacy of the CCP rule against strong headwinds.

Energy outlook 2040

Researchers at ExxonMobil forecast global energy demand at 30% higher than in 2010 due to a combination of factors such as increasing economic output, prosperity and population growth as well as maturing economies, and increasing efficiency, resulting in 60% demand growth within the non-OECD economies. Indian energy demand is forecast to more than double from 28 quadrillion BTUs in 2010 to 61 in 2040, about 9% of global demand.
In their annual energy outlook, "2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040", they state that electricity generation would account for more than 40% of global energy consumption while demand for coal would peak and then decline gradually and demand for natural gas would rise by more than 60% and unconventional sources of oil and natural gas such as shale formations would form an increasing share of global supply.
They also state that efficiency gains through technologies such as hybrid vehicles and new, high- efficiency natural gas power plants would temper demand growth and curb emissions. and also predict that energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions would grow slowly, then level off around 2030.

Manipur as a hub for Look East

NITIN GOKHALE, Security and Strategic Studies editor at NDTV calls for fixing Manipur’s broken socio-political landscape even as New Delhi embarks on an enhanced Look East policy with Myanmar.
In his op ed in Gateway House, “Look to Manipur before looking East”,  he states that the economic blockades that have been imposed by the various communities in support of their socio-political demands had succeeded in choking off the supply chain of the already isolated region and creating artificial shortages of food items and petroleum products, crippling normal life for Manipuris while not achieving much politically.
He advocates a recognition of the importance of Manipur that shares about a 400km border with Myanmar as a key node in India’s Look East policy and the Manipuri border town of Moreh as a potential export center from India to ASEAN even as New Delhi seizes the moment to enhance trade and cultural ties with Naypyidaw. He states that both New Delhi and Imphal had to ensure a solution to the long-standing ethnic insurgencies and overcome apathy and indifference.

G-20 annual progress card on the International Monetary System reforms

EDWIN TRUMAN, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics tracks the progress made by the G-20 over the past year on reform of the international monetary system over five key areas: i) surveillance of the global economy and financial system, ii) the international lender-of-last-resort mechanisms (global financial safety nets), iii) he management of global capital flows, iv) reserve assets and reserve currencies, and v) IMS governance.
In his policy brief for the PIIE Quarterly, “G-20 Reforms of the International Monetary System: An Evolution”, he states that little progress had been made on most of the topics except for commitments by a few countries to allow their automatic stabilizers to operate in the current slowdown and marginal steps forward on the issues of the lender-of-last-resort issues, and codification of the progress made on the management of capital flows. He concludes that although the G-20 summit at Cannes resulted in some useful mutual education, there wasn’t much more in terms of concrete accomplishments.

World Energy Outlook 2011-35

The International Energy Agency assesses the threats and opportunities facing the global energy system based on an analysis of energy and climate trends and state that there is a wide difference between the current government policy commitments and the international goal of limiting the long-term increase in the global mean temperature to 2oC above pre-industrial levels highlighting the critical role of governments to define the objectives and implement the policies necessary to shape our energy future.In its annual “World Energy Outlook 2011”, it affirms a shift in dynamics of energy markets away from the OECD countries, a 25 year investment of 38 trillion dollars in energy infrastructure with the share of fossil fuels in primary energy consumption declining slightly from 81% in 2010 to 75% in 2035.
It predicts an increasing role for natural gas both from conventional as well as unconventional sources, and a 15% share for non-hydro renewables by 2035. In one of the scenarios, India is projected to be the second largest coal consumer after China and the largest coal importer from the 2020s and coal could be boosted by widespread deployment of more efficient coal-fired power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies while Russia’s large energy resources would underpin its continuing role as a cornerstone of the global energy economy over the coming decades.

A solution to Naga insurgency

NAMRATA GOSWAMI of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA) states that the Naga ethnic conflict could be in the final stages of resolution with a proposal floated by the Union government for a non-territorial Naga council involving a pan-Naga supra state body that would enjoy legal authority over cultural, development and social rights of the Nagas across several states in the Northeast while law and order would remain within the respective states where the Nagas lived.
In an IDSA commentary, “A non-territorial resolution to the Naga ethnic conflict”, she states that this solution would amount to a special federal relationship recognizing the distinct identity of the Nagas and a guarantee of non-interference in their lifestyle.
She concludes that the present ‘supra-state’ proposition of non-territorial unification was a meaningful way to overcome the anxieties of other ethnic communities over the maximalist demand for Nagalim or unification of all Naga-inhabited areas in the NorthEast and calls upon New Delhi to work in consultation with the state governments of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland and Manipur to resolve problem areas identified on the path towards non-territorial Naga council while the NSCN (IM) could work towards peaceful resolution of the insurgency.

Marine SEZs: Push to a greater blue economy

LIU SHUGUANG of the Ocean University of China reviews Beijing’s marine economic strategy in the wake of spate of approvals for marine economic development zones in Shandong, Zhejiang and Guangdong this year and explores their potential impact on neighboring countries, especially the littoral states of the regional seas.

In an RSIS commentary, “China’s Marine Economy: Opportunities for International Co-operation?”, he states that Beijing’s marine economy initiatives were an important part of its strategic reorientation to reduce export dependence and China’s stimulus package for its manufacturing sector and increasing inter-provincial competition accelerated the development of these marine zones centred around the Shandong peninsula to leverage China-Korea free trade agreement, Zhoushan archipelago in Zhejiang province and Guangdong to leverage the China-ASEAN free trade agreement.
He calls for a revamp of China’s traditional model characterised by extensive utilization of resources and spaces, FDI for land reclamation and irrational competition among provinces in favor of a shift to a blue economy based on management and conservation of marine resources and greater international co-operation for effective marine economic strategies.

Geoengineering for climate change

DANIEL BODANSKY of the Arizona State University states that geoengineering, a concept encompassing a variety of approaches to counteract the effects of greenhouse gas emissions, covering Solar radiation management (limiting sunlight reaching the earth, through such diverse techniques such as cloud whitening, stratospheric aerosol injection or space-based mirrors) and Carbon dioxide removal  (through enhanced weathering of rocks, mechanical trees, ocean fertilization) could increasingly become more salient if efforts to negotiate a new international agreement take too long to succeed. He states that unless the Kyoto Protocol could either be dramatically increased in scope or replaced by a new, more comprehensive agreement, global emissions will continue to rise and based on the current emissions trajectories, CO2 emissions could triple or quadruple by end of the century rather than double as has been currently estimated, potentially resulting in far more disastrous, non-linear effects of climate change.
In his discussion paper for the Harvard project on climate agreements, "Governing Climate Engineering: Scenarios for Analysis", he states that this has resulted in increasing interest in geoengineering solutions to address climate change and explores the various options currently available as well as costs and benefits of each approach. He highlights the lack of an international governance framework covering geoengineering activities including tasks such as developing norms to guide scientific research, allocating jurisdiction among states to regulate individuals, elaborating rules that constrain state behavior, and establishing procedures to limit conflict among states and predicts that governance of geoengineering was more likely to develop through the extension of existing treaty regimes to cover various types of geoengineering than through the development of a single comprehensive regime.

Eliminating piracy in the Horn of Africa

MICHIEL HIJMANS, former commander of NATO’s anti-piracy ‘Operation Ocean Shield‘ tracks the shift in piracy over the past two years and states that piracy had shifted significantly beyond the coast of Somalia and the inter-monsoon periods due to the deployment of ‘captured‘ mother-ships that carried more pirates and weaponry alongwith hostages, faster and for longer periods of time, aided by sophisticated navigation and communication systems onboard and supported by a piracy stock market.

In an article for Chatham House publication 'The World Today', "Threats of the sea", he states that although the establishment of the Internationally recommended transit corridor (IRTC) through the Gulf of Aden, increased naval and aerial patrolling, ‚safe rooms‘ on board merchant ships, private security personnel and anti-pirate actions by local communities had helped in the fight against piracy, there were other dimensions such as economic and legal that needed to be tackled to eliminate the piracy problem which was now a 7-12 billion dollar problem with about 650 hostages at any given point in time.

He calls for an establishment of an international tribunal for piracy cases to develop a legal framework to prosecute pirates and ensure justice, capacity development in countries such as Seychelles and investment in Puntland to develop a strategic maritime hub to enable the development of alternatives to piracy for the local populace.

Following the money trail

STUART LEVEY of the Council on Foreign Relations and CHRISTY CLARK of the Podesta Group state that although UN implemented targeted financial sanctions had gained acceptance among governments and the private sector in disrupting illicit networks and pressuring intransigent regimes by making it far more difficult for them to access needed financial services, their enforcement continued to be lax outside the US.
They argue that the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) over its 20+ years of existence had successfully changed the international landscape on financial controls for combating money laundering and terrorist financing. in their op-ed for Foreign Policy, "Follow the Money", and call for FATF to develop and enforce standards for implementation of financial sanctions.
The FATF's published standards had incentivized countries to continually improve and gain FATF's seal of approval, or at least not warrant its disapproval.

Strategic Communications and National Strategy

PAUL CORNISH, JULIAN LINDLEY-FRENCH and CLAIRE YORKE of the Chatham House raise awareness of the role and potential of strategic communications as a means of delivering policy and seek to clarify how strategic communications could help governments manage and respond to current and future security challenges.
In a Chatham House report, "Strategic Communications and National Strategy", they argue that strategic communications should not be understood to be merely a messaging activity, but as the core of a comprehensive strategic engagement effort – integrating multi-media, multi-outlet, community outreach and face-to-face efforts in a single campaign designed for adaptation to a complex and changing environment.
They also state that strategic communications could challenge governments to explain themselves more clearly and convincingly in order to gain and maintain public support for policy and in order to ensure that messages and actions do not conflict with one another and undermine the competence and reputation of government.

Analysis of China’s cyber warfare capabilities

DESMOND BALL of the Strategic and Defence Studies Center at the Australian National University at Canberra analyzes the development of China's cyber-warfare capabilities since the mid-1990s, the intelligence and military organizations involved, and the particular capabilities that have been demonstrated in defence exercises and in attacks on computer systems and networks in other countries.
In an article in Security Challenges, "China’s cyber warfare capabilities", he states that it was often very difficult to determine whether these attacks originated with official agencies or private "Netizens" as well as that China's demonstrated offensive cyber-warfare capabilities were fairly rudimentary such as denial-of-service, Trojan horse etc. that have been fairly easy to detect and remove. He also states that  there was no evidence that China's cyber-warriors could penetrate highly secure networks or systematically cripple selected command and control, air defence and intelligence networks and databases of advanced  adversaries, or to conduct deception operations by secretly manipulating the data in these networks. 

He concludes that it could however employ asymmetric strategies designed to exploit the relatively greater dependence on IT by its potential adversaries but could not compete in extended scenarios of sophisticated information warfare operations and would function best when used pre-emptively, as the PLA now practices in its exercises.

Shale Gas: hype vs reality

PAUL STEVENS of the Chatham House states that the 'shale gas revolution' which was responsible for a huge increase in unconventional gas production in the US over the last couple of years was creating huge investor uncertainties for international gas markets and renewables and could result in serious gas shortages within the next 10 years.
In a Chatham House report, "The 'Shale Gas Revolution': Hype and Reality" he states that the global recession that caused a drop in the gas demand and the sudden and unexpected development of unconventional gas supplies in the US had contributed to a steep fall in gas prices. He casts serious doubt over industry confidence in the 'revolution', questioning whether it can spread beyond the US, or indeed be maintained within it, as environmental concerns, high depletion rates and the fear that US circumstances may be impossible to replicate elsewhere, came to the fore.
He avers that investor uncertainty would reduce investment in future gas supplies to lower levels than would have happened had the 'shale gas revolution' not hit the headlines. He cautions that although the markets would eventually solve the problem, rising gas demand and the long lead-in-times on most gas projects would inflict high prices on consumers in the medium term.

Training Afghan security forces: Lessons from the USSR

OLGA OLIKER of the RAND Corporation presents an overview of Soviet efforts to improve and facilitate the training and development of Afghan security forces from 1920 to 1989 that could inform current approaches to planning and operating with Afghan forces and overcoming cultural challenges.
In her RAND monograph, "Building Afghanistan's Security Forces in Wartime The Soviet Experience", she states that although the personnel of the Soviet military, ministry of the interior (MVD) and KGB were tasked with coordinating the efforts of the Afghan armed forces, the 'Sarandoy' gendarmerie-like police force, and KhAD intelligence services, respectively, there was poor co-ordination among each other and such stove-piping among the Soviets were mirrored within the Afghans and this was compounded by limited information sharing by the Soviets with their Afghan counterparts because of personal mistrust and security concerns.
The Afghan conscript army continuously experienced high desertion due to poor conditions, political, tribal, and ethnic tensions as well as targeting by insurgent groups and poor maintenance ensured that equipment was wasted while militias were encouraged which had little loyalty to the Afghan government.
She concludes that the ISAF could learn some lessons from the Soviet experience in terms of a greater Soviet willingness to deploy large numbers of police advisors, well-matched in rank and age to Afghan counterparts, better retention in volunteer Sarandoy force as well as the dangers of relying on militia.

H2O leverage

BRAHMA CHELLANEY of the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi draws attention to the China's rise as a hydro-hegemon assuming unchallenged riparian preeminence by controlling the headwaters of multiple international rivers and manipulating their cross-border flows and acquiring leverage against its neighbors by undertaking massive hydro-engineering projects on transnational rivers.
In a Japan Times article "China's unparalleled rise as a hydro-hegemon", he states that riparian neighbors in South and South-East Asia were bound by water pacts in contrast to Beijing which did not have a single water treaty with any co-riparian country. Beijing rejected the notion of water sharing or institutionalized co-operation with lower riparian states in favor of bilateral initiatives even as it promoted multilateralism in other areas on the world stage, causing water to increasingly become a political divide in its relations to neighbors like India, Russia, Kazakhstan and Nepal as well as the states of the lower Mekong.
He also states that these water disputes were likely to worsen with China's focus on erecting mega-dams on the Mekong, Brahmaputra and Illy would cause significant disruptions to countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam and Kazakhstan, changing the status quo on flows of international rivers and calls for cooperation to halt Beijing's unilateral appropriation of shared water resources as pivotal to Asian peace and stability.

Sustainable urban transportation choices

DEBORAH GORDON of the Energy and Climate program at the Carnegie Endowment and DANIEL SPERLING, director of University of California Davis' Institute of Transportation Studies state that the global proliferation of vehicles presented two alternatives: one where cheap oil, free roads, sprawled development and subsidized home ownership would result in a foreboding car monoculture and an alternative option involving low-carbon, location-efficient, economically productive mobility where  Government, industry, and consumers—especially in emerging economies—could reinvent transportation models and employ innovative solutions. 

In their European Financial Review article "Critical Crossroad: Advancing Global Opportunities to Transform Transportation", they state that the proliferation of automobiles alongwith the the rise of megacities would spur a spiraling motorization process that would result in unhealthy, inefficient, unsustainable cities and crushing financial burdens and advocate an intervention to move away from wasteful transportation system to more sustainable, diverse approach that mimics natural ecosystem with the direct involvement of business, government, and consumers that would transform vehicles, transform fuels, and transform mobility.

They state that transportation could be redesigned as a system and not be bound to a single mode and provide examples of cutting-edge cities which were leading the way on a number of fronts, using strategic policy tools to advance low-carbon mobility.

SDR as a reserve currency

JOSEPH E GAGNON, fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics argues that IMF’s Special Drawing Right (SDR) could serve as a solution to address the asymmetry of international reserve assets and enhance reserve diversity and reduce distortions caused by excessive reliance on the US dollar as the main reserve asset.
In his article, “A Currency System for a Multi-Polar World”, he outlines his 2-step proposal for the IMF

1. expand the SDR basket to include the currencies of all countries that have sound macroeconomic policies and whose bond markets meet minimum standards of openness and supervision;
2. create synthetic SDR bonds backed by medium-term sovereign bonds denominated in the currencies of the SDR basket.

He states that several dozen countries would qualify for inclusion in the SDR, including almost all advanced countries and a number of developing countries, and the IMF had acknowledged the benefits of a broader SDR basket for reserve diversification and for financial development in emerging markets. He also states that synthetic SDR bonds could be backed by sovereign debt in the currencies of the SDR basket and tradable among investors like exchange-traded funds (ETF), providing investors with a standardized asset that provides both a high degree of diversification and a deep and liquid market.

Gear-shift in Car manufacturing

MATTEO FERRAZZI of Unicredit Group and ANDREA GOLDSTEIN of the OECD analyze the transformation of the global car industry, a cornerstone of global manufacturing in terms of turnover, employment, trade and technology incubation.
They state that global economic crisis had magnified pre-existing challenges, accelerated the rebalancing of global economic activity between industrial and emerging economies with a dramatic shift in the location of production with BRIC countries expanding their share from 10% to 33% in a period of 10 years. 
In their report for Chatham House' World's Industrial Transformation Series, "The New Geography of Automotive Manufacturing", they conclude that the industry would continue to be global, with new players (from China and India) increasing their share of fast-growing emerging markets and gradually become capable of challenging the incumbents in Western markets.

Mapping the World's Changing Industrial Landscape

DONALD HEPBURN, fellow of International Economics at Chatham House traces the changes in the world’s industrial landscape over the past 25 years and states that globalization, lower trade barriers, transport costs and a surge in international capital flows were a powerful enabler of transformation of the industrial landscape. He states that manufacturing shifted from industrialized to developing countries with developing countries increasing their share from 20% in 1995 to 28% in 2008 while industry’s share of world value added fell from 35% in 1985 to 27% in 2008 driven by fragmentation of the operations followed by outsourcing
In his Chatham House article, "Mapping the World's Changing Industrial Landscape", he states that that while demand drivers such as demographic factors such as urbanization, ageing, income growth and elasticity, and changing tastes had the potential to transform large swathes of industries such as consumer durables, automobiles, aviation, and health services; supply drivers such as availability of skilled labour, capital, infrastructure and supportive business environment could determine growth of industries and services within the developing countries. He cautions that the shift of industry to developing countries could be slowed by increased transport costs, changes in exchange rates and a backlash against globalization in developed countries if growth proved elusive and unemployment stayed high.

Arctic as a 'global common'

P K GAUTAM, fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses advocates a stance on the Arctic region as a global 'common' and calls for protection of its unique ecology and calls upon New Delhi to play an increasingly active role in Arctic affairs through ad-hoc observer membership of the Arctic Council similar to its stance in global "commons" negotiations such as space and climate change.

In his IDSA issue brief, "The Arctic as a Global Common", he states that the current discourse on the Arctic was dominated by the Arctic five and the Arctic Council with the focus more around territorial and economic claims, and resource exploitation rather than protection of the unique ecology of the Arctic.

He avers that Arctic and the preservation of its ecology could be positioned as a "common heritage of mankind", the concept by which global 'commons' such as seabed, ocean floor, outer space, lunar minerals, geostationary orbit, solar energy, internet etc. are currently governed.

Chinese checkers in Central Asia

FRANCOIS GODEMENT, JérôME Doyon, Jean-Pierre Cabestan, Marie-Hélène Schwoob, Martina Bassan of the Asia Centre, Sciences Po, analyze content in Chinese language publications in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan to argue that Central Asia with a population of 66 million and source of more than 10 percent of China's oil and gas imports was fast becoming a laboratory for Chinese foreign policy.

In a China Analysis article for the European Council for Foreign Relations, "The New Great Game in Central Asia", they state that Beijing had set its sights on Central Asia as it became increasingly important as a lower-risk source of oil and gas, a market for consumer goods and core of the Shanghai Co-operation Organization (SCO). They state that Beijing could play an increasing role in Central Asian geopolitics by mobilising its oil companies and forex reserves to counterbalance the influence of Washington and Tokyo in the energy sector and integrate further into the infrastructure and transportation sector.

Blueprint for enhancing U.S.-India cooperation

ROBERT BLACKWILL and NARESH CHANDRA, co-chairs of the Joint Study Group sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations and Aspen Institute India recommend Washington to express strong support New Delhi's peaceful rise as a crucial component of Asian security and stability, and call for both countries to endorse a long term residual U.S. military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014 and advocate a resumption of regular meetings of the Quad states (U.S., India, Japan and Australia) as well as periodic invitations to like-minded Asian nations.

Their report, "The United States and India: A Shared Strategic Future", covers areas such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, Middle East, economic and defense co-operation, climate change, energy technology and makes the following key recommendations:

On Pakistan:

• Classified exchanges between U.S. and India on multiple Pakistan contingencies
• Conditioning U.S. military aid to Pakistan on concrete anti-terrorist measures by the Pakistan military against groups inimical to India and the U.S. in Afghanistan
• U.S. to provide technical assistance to Pakistan to protect its nuclear arsenal
• India to continue bilateral negotiations with Pakistan on issues including Kashmir and trilateral discussions with Afghanistan

On Afghanistan

• India to intensify multidimensional co-operation with Afghanistan.
• Determine usefulness of Indian training of Afghanistan security forces

On China and Asia:

• Jointly and individually enlist China’s cooperation on matters of global and regional concern and not desire confrontation with Beijing.
• Brief each other on their assessments of China and intensify consultations on Asian security.

On the Middle East:

• Collaborate on democratic transitions in the Middle East—with Arab interest and agreement.
• India to intensify discussions with Iran concerning the stability of Iraq and Afghanistan.

On economic cooperation:

• Enhance their Strategic Dialogue to include economics and trade.
• Begin discussions on a free trade agreement.

On climate change and energy technology, the collaboration should:

• Bridge disagreements and identify creative areas for collaboration.
• Conduct joint feasibility study on space-based solar power.

On defense cooperation, the United States should:

• Train and provide expertise to the Indian military in areas such as space and cyberspace operations where India’s defense establishment is currently weak, but its civil and private sector has strengths.
• The United States to help strengthen India’s indigenous defense industry.

India-China-Africa triangle

CALESTOUS JUMA, professor at Harvard University advocates a reconstruction of Africa’s relations with the rest of the world through its long-term economic objectives of adding value to natural resources, expanding manufacturing and reinvestment of revenues in infrastructure and technical training.

In his op-ed in Kenya’s The Nation, “Africa’s solution to Asian interests”, he states that a foreign policy that focused relationships with China and India on economic issues such as infrastructure, skills transfer and market access would ensure Africa developed enough to become a global economic actor. in the wake of significant expansion of the Sino-African and Indo-African bilateral economic relationship.

He concludes with a call for tripartite consultations to create a transparent platform for economic diplomacy and diminish perceptions of Sino-Indian competition in Africa, in the wake of a significant and parallel expansion of Sino-African and Indo-African economic relationship.

Analysis of world energy consumption

Analysts at British Petroleum state that global energy consumption in 2010 grew by 5.6% with the OECD growth at 3.5% and non-OECD growth at 7.5%, the highest rate since 1973 with total energy consumption surpassing the pre-recession peak reached in 2008.
In their 60th annual review of world energy, "BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011", they state that oil at 34% continued as the world's leading fuel, followed by coal (30%), natural gas (24%),Hydel (6%), Nuclear (5%) and renewables (1%) although coal consumption grew by 7.6% and natural gas consumption grew by 7.4%.
India's energy consumption increased by 9.2% to 524 mil tonnes oil equivalent from 2009 on the back of a strong growth in coal consumption (11%) and natural gas (21%). Although nuclear energy grew 37%, it still constituted  1% of the energy mix.

Mobile financial services in India

Analysts at the Boston Consulting Group state that provision of mobile financial services (MFS) could raise India's financial inclusion rate in 2020 to 65% up from the projected 53%. 
In a Telenor-funded study, "The Socio-Economic Impact of Mobile Financial Services - Analysis of Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Serbia and Malaysia", they state that mobile service providers had  inherent strengths that enabled them to play a strong role in the financial sector:
1. Focus on 'long-tail' unbanked customers
2. Availability of support infrastructure such as mobile handsets 
3. Existing customer relationships
4. Strong brand recognition
5. Large distribution networks
They state that provision of mobile financial services could provide hitherto un-banked individuals with a wide range of financial services, e-government services and efficient welfare distribution enhancing GDP and tax revenues by 5% and creating 4 million new jobs in the Indian economy.
They conclude that a comprehensive regulatory framework including a first tier addressing the use of MFS agents, money laundering and terrorist financing, a second tier addressing consumer protection and payment systems and a third  tier addressing the underlying framework such as data privacy, e-commerce, e-security, general banking, taxation and general telecommunications was vital for this to succeed.

Economic Cyber Warfare

PAUL CORNISH of the International Security Program at the Chatham House reviews the vulnerability of developed states to aggressive economic action through cyberspace asking whether economic cyber warfare should be considered a strategic problem. 
In his working paper, "The Vulnerabilities of Developed States to Economic Cyber Warfare", he states that a composite of economic warfare and cyber warfare - economic cyber warfare could offer a low-cost, low-risk alternative to cause grave damage to an increasingly interconnected global economy, a parasitism of sorts whereby the attacker would seek to exploit the target economy through espionage and intellectual property theft, rather than to destroy or impede it. 
He concludes that economic cyber warfare should be subject to sustained and careful scrutiny requiring more agility and mutually supportive relationships between national governments and critical sectors of the economy such as science, innovation, manufacturing, industry, financial and banking sectors since the first casualties of economic cyber warfare were likely to be confidence and predictability that form the bedrock of the national economy and the credibility of national government.

State of Indian philanthropy - 2011

ARPAN SHETH and MADHUR SINGHAL of Bain & Company claim that the entire philanthropy ecosystem consisting of donors, support networks and grassroots organisations had expanded dramatically over the past five years. 
In their report, "India Philanthropy Report 2011", based on interviews with philanthropists and experts on philanthropy in India they state that private charitable giving now represented about 0.3-0.4% of the GDP, a growth of 50% since 2006 backed by a surge in the population of high net-worth individuals, expansion of the scale of support networks and change in attitudes about giving as well as increasing awareness.
They outline four key areas to enhance private philanthropy: 
1. Enhanced accountability and transparency throughout the giving chain;
2. Professional NGOs with strong financial planning and operational skills;
3. Continued promotion of a culture of giving;
4. Collaboration with the government on adoption of more philanthropy-friendly policies.

A 'nanotech' future

Researchers under the direction of JUDIT CASTELLA of the Barcelona based Fundació Catalana per a la Recerca i la Innovació (FCRI) review nanotechnology , its economic and social implications, and its role in public policy and state that private investment in nanotech had exceeded public funding with a total overall annual R&D spend of over $4 billion led by US, Japan and the EU.

In a report for the FCRI, "Nanotechnology: What is it and how will it affect us?", they state that nanotechnology could cause significant disruption in multiple industries and require massive investments in infrastructure with development forecast over three phases: 

1. the current early-stage spanning 5 years focused on investigation phase, 

2: a commercial development phase spanning 5-10 years wherein applications would begin to be produced on an industrial scale and 

3: a mature phase spanning 10-15 years featuring a consolidation of the industry with a market for nanotechnology-enabled applications exceeding $ 1 trillion.

They state that nanotechnology could be compared to electricity which caused disruption in most industries on introduction contrasting that with genetics which impacted only medicine and agriculture and was impeded by social concerns. They conclude that the challenge for governments was to secure a niche for new economic growth by empowering local industries to assimilate new technologies, building a large, multi-disciplinary educated workforce, and addressing public concern over health and environmental issues.

Halting the decline in fish stocks

ACHIM STEINER of the UN Environment Program and JOSHUA REICHERT of the Pew Group state that the high seas containing the largest reservoir of Earth's biodiversity was under strain with the UN estimating that 85% of the world's fish stocks were fully exploited in the run-up to Rio+20 summit in June 2012, being held 20 years after the landmark Earth summit in Rio in 1992.

In their op-ed for the Project Syndicate, "Fixing Our Broken Oceans", they state that fragmented marine management practices, lack of high-seas governance, and over-subsidies for fishing that have resulted in twice as many industrial fishing vessels catching fish as the oceans can sustain.

They advocate an investment of $110 billion over the coming years in strengthened fisheries management including the establishment of marine protected areas, decommissioning and reduction of fleet capacity of industrial-scale large vessels, retraining of workers impacted by job losses, and policy measures to enable a recovery of fishery stocks.

Infrastructure development in North-East

SHIVANANDA of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses reviews India's infrastructure in the North-East in the backdrop of China's rapidly augmented infrastructure along the Line of Actual Control with all-weather, double-lane roads, a road network of 58,000 kms, extension of Qinghai-Tibet railway up to Shigatse and additional airfields under construction in Tibet. He states that all passes and military posts on the LAC had been linked with highways, logistic depots and military installations and China could mobilize more than 30 divisions and outnumber Indian forces by 3:1.

In his op-ed for IDSA Comments, "Is India’s Transport Infrastructure Prepared for the Eastern Front?", states that although infrastructure development had picked up in the northern sector there was a considerable lag in the eastern sector undermining New Delhi's capability to thwart external aggression in the eastern front.

He calls for enhanced transport connectivity in the region with establishment of railway networks in the hinterland, timely construction of roads that extend to the borders, and expedited construction of bridges.

State-wise analysis of the Indian growth miracle

ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN of the Peterson Institute and UTSAV KUMAR of the Asian Development Bank analyze patterns in India's decadal growth in 2001-2009 vs the 1993-2001 as the turnaround in policy entered its third decade since 1991. 

In a Business Standard op-ed, "India: Growth in 2000s- Key Facts", they present four key findings on the state of growth in India  

1. Doubling of growth: Per-capita growth rates doubled in the 2000s in most states with the exception of Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan 

2. Increasing divergence: Richer states on average grew faster and pulled away from the rest and inequality increased in spite of the stellar performance of hitherto laggards such as Bihar, Orissa and Chattisgarh 

3. Vulnerability to globalization: Globalization catalyzed growth as well as decline exemplified by states such as Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Maharshtra where growth accelerated prior to 2008 and declined sharply during the global financial crisis 

4. Demographic complacence: Demographically aging states such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Gujarat did remarkably well while demographically dynamic states such as U.P, Rajastan and M.P did not fare as well.

They state that the Indian growth miracle continued to confound with India capacious enough to allow both Bania, reforming Gujarat and Marxist, reform-resistant Kerala to flourish.

Unleashing India

JESSICA SEDDON of the Council on Foreign Relations states that Indian economy and the polity had built up substantial momentum albeit on a creaky infrastructure and poor services, undercutting its demographic dividend.

In an article for the Harvard International Review, "India's Catastrophic Landscape: Fixing a flawed foundation", she advocates a paradigm shift from a focus on particular policy changes such as labor market reform or financial sector reform to that of political reform where focus was on revamping the state's ability as an organization to deliver on the infrastructure and services for its citizens.

She calls for three elements: clarification of roles and responsibilities and untangling of three layers of government, improvement of management information systems and setting up of systems to recruit the right people such as intra-party democracy and campaign finance reform as part of a broader management overhaul of the state in response to growing disenchantment.

Analysis of Russian Arctic Policy

ELANA WILSON ROWE of the Norwegian Institute for International Affairs, MARLENE LARUELLE at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University and DMITRY GORENBURG, editor of Russian Politics and Law analyze aspects of Russia's Arctic policy such as politics in the Russian North, demographics and the role of the Russian military in the Arctic, in a study, "Russian Policy Options in the Arctic" for the Russian analytical digest.
Elana Wilson Rowe provides an introduction to the politics of the Russian North, and outlines the dichotomy of an ‘open’ North with wider international co-operation and a ‘closed’ North with an emphasis on defending its national interests and authority and calls for greater attention on the overlaps and tensions between these two modes. 
Marlene Laruelle reviews the Moscow's demographic challenges in the Russian Arctic and states that as it embarked on greater resource extraction in the region, Moscow would have to address challenges to key aspects of its Russian identity in the wake of an influx of migrants from Central Asia and China.
Dmitry Gorenburg states that Russia’s military and security strategy in the Arctic has shifted from unilateral military posturing to peaceful dispute resolution due to a perception of a co-operative approach as being more conducive to exploration and investment in Arctic natural resources. He states that the Arctic was unexpectedly becoming a venue for strengthening international cooperation although the role of growing non-Arctic powers such as China and Korea was an unknown for the near future.

Roadmap for Pakistan

HASSAN ABBAS of the Asia Society and a team of American and Pakistani experts focus on Pakistan’s internal crises and define a road map for establishing stability, a sustainable democratic order, and a pluralistic society as a way to strengthen and develop the country in service of its population.
In their study group report, "PAKISTAN 2020 A Vision for Building a Better Future", they focus on seven core issues i.e. democratic institutions, rule of law, human development, energy, assistance to flood victims, internal security and peace with India.
They call for international assistance to support Pakistan keeping in mind its historical insecurity, while providing assistance in reforming its civil institutions, democracy and in addressing regional tensions.

A new approach to Nuclear spent fuel management

CHARLES FERGUSON, CLIFFORD SINGER, JACK SPENCER and SHARON SQUASSONI state that the central planning approach to U.S. spent nuclear fuel management had been a glaring exception to the trend toward a market-driven energy sector and each of the three past approaches - breeding fuel, prompt burial and deep burn had failed due to what they view as inflexibility to changing economic and political conditions.
In a report of the Proliferation Prevention Program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, "U.S. Spent Nuclear Fuel: A market based solution", they envisage a market-driven approach that would fundamentally alter the notion of spent nuclear fuel from a liability as it is currently to an asset alongwith provisions of adequate financial incentives to states and communities hosting long-term spent fuel management facilities.
The key components of their proposal include payments into escrow funds for spent fuel management rather than to the government, reassessment of radio-isotope containment criteria, licenses for away-from-reactor storage facilities alongwith removal of restrictions on volumes and site duration, removal of the requirement for prompt burial, equal treatment of all states, allowing private sector multiple options on fuel storage and importing foreign spent fuel.
The authors state that this could enhance U.S' ability as a nuclear supplier to influence other countries' nuclear fuel cycle choices and enhance regional security and support nuclear non-proliferation initiatives.

Black to White money

ZELJKO BJELAJAC of the University of Novi Sad states that the combination of over 100 tax havens worldwide, correspondent accounts that nullify the 'Know Your Customer (KYC)' principle and proliferation of new electronic payment systems have significantly enhanced the scale of money laundering operations by transnational organized crime.
In an analysis of contemporary money-laundering for the Research Institute for European and American Studies (RIEAS), "Contemporary Tendencies in Money Laundering Methods", he draws attention to the inherent risks of electronic payment systems such as lack of transparency, inadequate recording and alerting on suspicious transactions and hindered access to judicial authorities that have been identified by the expert Financial Agenda Task Force (FATF).
He highlights global co-operation including universal standards for prevention of money-laundering and funding of terrorism, implementation across all jurisdictions, establishment of supervisory and internal controls, specialized education and staff training methodologies, detection and prosecution to reduce the risks arising out of money-laundering.

Global scientific collaboration

Fellows of the Royal Society headed by CHRIS LLEWELYN SMITH survey the changing landscape for science and innovation in the 21st century, its networks of collaboration and implications for global decision-makers in science, business, NGO's and governments for addressing 'global challenges' such as climate change, food security, and infectious diseases.

In their study in cooperation with Elsevier, "Knowledge, networks and nations: global scientific collaboration in the 21st century", they state that international collaboration comprised of upto 35% of all publications in international journals and was driven by scientists themselves in their quest to work with the best people, institutions and equipment with the R&D budget estimated at $1.2 trillion spanning 7 million researchers across the world. 

They recommend strengthened support for international science and collaboration, development of national and international science strategies, international capacity building to ensure sharing of the benefits of scientific research and development of better indices to evaluate global science.