Instability in Yemen

Ginny Hill, fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, states that Yemen's window of opportunity to shape a future based on a post-oil economy was narrowing and that Western governments needed to work towards an effective regional approach alongwith the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. In a briefing paper for the Chatham House, "Yemen: Fear of Failure", she cautions that future instability in Yemen could expand a lawless zone around the Horn of Africa with attendant piracy, smuggling and violent jihad, with implications for the security of shipping routes and the transit of oil through the Suez Canal.

Get ready for brickbats...

Michael Auslin, AEI's director of Japan Studies states that global public opinion may be turning against China in the wake of increasing evidence of China not turning out to be a "responsible stakeholder" as envisaged. In an op-ed for The Washington Examiner, "Good feelings for China at a tipping point",he states that sustained tension between China and the world could lead to further Chinese probing of American and Asian countries' defenses, more deployment of advanced weaponry including aircraft carriers, and continued obstruction over Darfur and Iran.

Another Persian Gulf??

SELIG S HARRISON, Director at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars provides a brief analysis of the various legal and jursdictional issues related to the treasure trove of untapped seabed oil and gas in the vast expanse of the East China Sea between China and Japan and the Yellow Sea between China and the Koreas and the motives of the Chinese, Japanese, and Korean players. In a study for the Project on Oil and Gas Cooperation in Northeast Asia, "Seabed Petroleum in Northeast Asia: Conflict or Cooperation?", he states that although agreement on a joint exploration zone was impeded by conflicting positions between Japan and China, the two Governments could authorize their oil companies to conduct seismic surveys, exploratory drilling, exchange data and negotiate terms of production operations and profit sharing while the conflicts were being resolved.

Justice as well as Peace in conflict resolution

RICHARD DICKER, Director of the International Justice Program at Human Rights Watch calls attention to the thorny debate over whether pursuing justice for grave international crimes interfered with peace negotiations in the wake of increasing possibility of trials for abusive national leaders. In an article for the Chatham House magazine, The World Today, "International Criminal Court: Peace & Justice", he states that international law and practice had evolved to a point where both peace and justice had to be equal objectives of negotiations to end conflicts where serious crimes under international law had been committed and that peace agreements did not have to foreclose the possibility of justice at a later date.

Diplomacy in Persia

Kayhan Barzegar, senior research fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran states that Iran would not concede its claim to the nuclear fuel cycle on which there is broad consensus within the Irani elite and Iran could prove vital in bringing lasting security to the Middle East. In an article in The Washington Quarterly, "Iran's Foreign Policy Strategy After Saddam", he recommends that the Obama administration engage in meaningful diplomacy with Tehran and not give in to the temptation of isolating and weakening Iran, which would impinge on U.S. goals of stability, non-proliferation and resolution of ongoing regional conflicts.

The Military's Voice

MADHAVI BHASIN,  Visiting Scholar at the Center for South Asia Studies at the University of California, Berkeley states that the recent media pronouncements by the Indian military chiefs suggested that the armed forces craved a voice in the national strategic dialogue, which has so far been denied to it. In an upcoming article, "Indian Military Seeks a Holistic Role" she highlights recent incidents to buttress her argument that the chiefs of the different military wings have discreetly found ways to counter the prevailing insulation of the Indian military from a holistic role in designing the national defense strategy.

Predator - A Blessing in disguise in Waziristan

FARHAT TAJ of the Center for Interdisciplinary Gender Research of the University of Oslo challenges Pakistani and US media reports about the civilian casualties in the drone attacks in Waziristan claiming that those estimates were fabricated by the pro-Taliban and pro Al-Qaeda elements in Pakistan as part of their propaganda against the US. In an op-ed in Pakistan's The Daily Times, "Drone attacks: challenging some fabrications" she claims that the people of Waziristan had suffered under occupation by the Taliban and the al Qaeda and hence welcomed the drone attacks as a means of getting rid of their oppressors through the precision strikes.

Transforming Indo-Bangla relationship

C. RAJA MOHAN, scholar of foreign policy and international relations at the Library of Congress calls upon New Delhi to seize the moment in the backdrop of the Bangladeshi PM's visit and engineer a paradigm shift in New Delhi-Dhaka relations that could serve as a template for the relations with the rest of the South Asian countries. In an op-ed in the Indian Express, "Look to our near east", he opines that New Delhi should move towards a relationship with Dhaka based on the principle of sovereign equality, emphasize 'interests' rather than 'sentiments', open its markets more generously and endorse Dhaka's aspirations to lead the process of regional and sub-regional cooperation in the sub-continent, thus facilitating its emergence as a great eastern hub of South Asia.

Vietnam's Defence White Paper reviewed

PANKAJ K JHA reviews the 3rd Vietnamese national defence white paper that was released in Dec 2009 and states that while the white paper clearly articulated the priorities for Vietnam in terms of building comprehensive national power and raising the country's technological capability, it did not provide any insight into policies or strategic plans. In an article for the New Delhi based Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, "Vietnamese Defence White Paper 2009", he states that the white paper fell short in identifying major internal and external challenges as well as ignoring new modes of training and the techniques of network-centric warfare.

Nuclear weapons - A US perspective

FRANKLIN C MILLER of the Schlesinger Task Force for Nuclear Weapons Management asserts that nuclear weapons would continue to have a role in US national security strategy and that the US would need to maintain a modern and credible nuclear deterrent. In a Lowy Institute Perspectives article, "The vital place of nuclear weapons in 21st century US national security strategy", he states that the U.S. needed a credible deterrent that was always perceived as safe, secure, survivable, capable and should maintain strategic force levels over Russian and Chinese theatre arsenals that would enable U.S. allies have confidence in US decision-making.

Resolving conflict in the Horn of Africa

Dr. ROY LOVE examines the importance of the economic dimensions of the conflicts in the Horn of Africa in both causing conflicts as well as its potential in securing sustainable post-conflict stability. In a Chatham House briefing, "Economic Drivers of Conflict and Cooperation in the Horn of Africa", he states that the establishment of permanent peace can only be built upon a common set of values reflecting equity, tolerance and an acknowledgment of the potential of traditional institutions in entrenching community cohesion and economic drivers necessary for their success could then be harnessed.

A non-nuclear future

THOMAS C. SCHELLING, Professor at the University of Maryland expresses skepticism about global nuclear disarmament and argues that such an order would not necessarily be safer than the current nuclear deterrence based order. In an article in Daedalus, the journal of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, "A world without nuclear weapons?", he states that global nuclear zero would mean a world wherein about a dozen countries would have hair-trigger mobilization plans to rebuild nuclear weapons, commandeer delivery systems, and plans to target others' nuclear facilities, with practice drills and secure emergency communications and that every crisis would be a nuclear crisis, and any war could become a nuclear war.

Countering Takfiri ideology

JESSICA STERN of the Harvard Law School recommends that Governments' arsenal against jihadist terror include arguments based on Islamic theology and ethics that refuted terrorism and strengthened the resilience of vulnerable populations. In an article in Foreign Affairs, "Mind Over Martyr - How to Redicalize Islamic Extremists", she claims that Saudi Arabia had rehabilitated and reintegrated over 4000 militants into the mainstream of society and this program contained lessons for Western and other governments to emulate and minimize the threat of Islamic fundamentalism.

Changing Central Asia

M. K. BHADRAKUMAR states that Central Asia is poised for a new dawn with China's increased economic engagement, convergence of Sino-Russian interests and increased U.S. efforts to draw the Central Asian states towards AfPak. In an article in The Hindu, "India and the Central Asian Dawn", he laments that the current strategic discourses on China were caught in a time warp and Sino-India ties had increasingly acquired a regional dimension and calls for a change in India's current thinking on Central Asia.

Non-nuclear means of deterrence

AJAY LELE of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses questions the continuing relevance of nuclear weapons at the centre of the deterrence debate in India in the wake of the changing nature of threats and proliferation of new and advanced weapons systems. In an article in the Indian Defence Review, "Bows, Arrows and Nuclear Weapons", he calls for India to supplement its existing deterrence mechanism with additional non-nuclear weapons which had the capability to 'deter' and advertise such weapons as weapons of deterrence in the security lexicon.