Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Can coal be cleaned?

ANDREW DeWIT, Professor at Rikkyo University declares that claims of "clean coal" as a sustainable source of energy by the coal lobby were patently false stating that 'cleaning' coal would raise its unit cost comparable to that of wind and solar energy and would also raise environmental pollution and groundwater damage alongwith health issues for mine-workers. In an article for the Asia-Pacific Journal, "The Mirage of Clean Coal and the Technological Alternatives", he concludes that "clean coal" was inherently not a sustainable kind of energy economy and such claims were the desperate strategies of an industry whose time was now over.

China and non-proliferation

SHEN DINGLI, Vice President at the Shanghai Association of International Studies proposes a program of nuclear threat reduction entailing a vision of zero nuclear weapons as well as de-emphasis of the role of nuclear weapons in geopolitics  and an end to threatening nuclear postures in order to promote nonproliferation and global security. In a Lowy Institute Perspectives article, "Toward a nuclear weapons free world: a Chinese perspective", he states that although China has shied away from its earlier statement about commencing nuclear disarmament when the strategic arsenals of the U.S. and the Soviets were halved, he cites its stance on the CTBT and the FMCT as indications of its intentions to contribute as a responsible stakeholder.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

New world economic order

JIM O’NEILL, chief economist at Goldman Sachs reviews the durability of the BRIC economies through the economic shock and examines how the crisis had benefited each of the BRIC economies and what they would need to do to further increase momentum. In an article, "BRICs are Still on top", he predicts that the G20 would have a larger role in conflict reduction in the future and that a new multipolar global currency system would allow greater diversity in global trade and investment and mitigate the global imbalances that have arisen out of the dependency on the dollar.

Hamam in Afghanistan

SEDAT LACINER, Director of Turkey's International Strategic Research Organization (USAK) claims that Turkey's status as a Muslim country, the NATO power with the largest army after the U.S. and its close historical ties to both Afghanistan and Pakistan made it an ideal country in any future plan for Afghan reconstruction. In an article in the the Turkish Weekly, "Turkey Should Play Further Role in Afghanistan", he states that Turkey could train the Afghan police in addition to the training its currently imparting to the Afghan army divisions and outlines a region-based approach towards Afghan economic reconstruction cautioning that Western goals for a fully functioning democracy in Afghanistan was unrealistic.

With Great Power ....

DOMINIQUE MOISI, advisor of the French Institute of International Affairs (IFRI) and visiting professor at Harvard University asserts that if a G3 ever became a reality, the only serious contender to join U.S. and China was India and not the EU because of what he terms Europe's Lilliputian instincts.
In an article in the Japan Times, "Recognizing confident India as indispensable", he states that the period when India was forgotten by the world and when India could forget the world was past and counsels India to take increasing responsibilities for regional and world security.

Monday, December 28, 2009

COIN lessons from Jammu and Kashmir

Rahul K Bhonsle, editor of South Asia Security Trends drawing on learnings in Jammu and Kashmir states that it was critical that any winning hearts and minds (WHAM) campaign consisted of a two-pronged strategy including a process of reaching out to the people and thwarting the efforts of proxy operatives to negate the WHAM strategy. In a Manekshaw paper for the Centre for Land Warfare Studies, “Winning Hearts and Minds - Lessons from Jammu and Kashmir”, he recommends a human-centric approach commiting to equity of rights and reducing human losses as well as sustained policies which establish the genuineness of the government as critical to any counter-insurgency campaign.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

PakAf War

Frederick W. Kagan, Director at the American Enterprise Institute declares that the war against the network of Islamists in South Asia was now a two-front war wherein terrorist groups had to be fought in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. In an article for The Weekly Standard, "The Two-Front War", he praises Pakistan for showing surprising determination and competence in its struggle against the Pakistani Islamists and calls upon the US to show similar determination in its struggle against the Afghan Taliban.

Sunday, December 20, 2009

US - Pakistan strains

STEPHEN COHEN of the Brookings Institution traces the history of the fluctuating relationship between Pakistan and the U.S. since the inception of Pakistan over 60 years ago.In his book, "Superpower Rivalry and Conflict: The long shadow of the Cold War on the 21st century" he states that this relationship has resulted in the transformation of the Pakistani self-image from that of a staunch, reliable and strong moderate Muslim ally to that of a state that has suffered on behalf of the West and which has not being adequately compensated for its suffering.

Gaming Terror

AARON MANNES and V.S. SUBRAHMANIAN of the University of Maryland claim that policymakers could build computer models to analyze and predict behaviors of insurgent groups in complex geopolitical situations such as the Middle East. In an article in Foreign Policy, "Calculated Terror - How a computer model predicts the future in some of the world's most volatile hotspots", they state that models could be built using historical data to not only predict the actions of insurgent groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas but also provide insight into their behavior and priorities.

The elephant and the kangaroo

BRAHMA CHELLANEY of the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi calls for a close India-Australia strategic relationship, given the common security interests in several spheres that bind the two democracies and contrasts it with the reality of the drift in their ties in the recent past. In a Japan Times article "Asia's new strategic partners", he states that the new security agreement will help add concrete strategic content to the relationship and lead to increasing policy coordination on Asian and international affairs

Swinging into focus

JOHN LEE of the Center of Independent Studies in Sydney opines that the developing bilateral partnership between Washington and New Delhi could turn out to be the swing factor in the “Asian Century”. In an op-ed in the Korea Herald “India Fast Becoming Asia’s Swing State”, he states that the combination of a booming economy, a large military, positive perceptions in other key Asian states, a growing military supply relationship with the West had the ingredients to entrench New Delhi’s status as a major power center within Asia.


Australia's strategic options

ROD LYON, Program Director at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute reviews the nuclear implications of the shifting Asian security environment in the backdrop of limited applicability of the Cold-War nuclear order and states that US allies like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan could go in for vigorous nuclear hedging and might even be tempted to cross the nuclear rubicon. In a report for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, “A delicate issue: Asia’s nuclear future” he states that Canberra could pursue a course allowing it to retain future options including strategies such as ‘ordering’ involving strengthened nuclear safeguards and ‘hedging’ involving enhancement of Australian capabilities in enrichment and reprocessing.

Non-proliferation and the G20

GREGORY SCHULTE, Visiting Fellow at the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the U.S. National Defence University proposes the adoption of the G20 as a forum to advance non-proliferation and claims that an endorsement from G20 would carry greater diplomatic weight than that of the G8. In an article for Proliferation Analysis, "Fighting Nuclear Proliferation at 20", he argues that despite the G20 being more unwieldy than the G8, it would prove a better forum to start laying the framework for future initiatives on non-proliferation.

Playing fair in Stockholm??

S. GANESAN, Chairman of the International Treaties Expert Committee at the Indian Chemical Council states that the EU was increasingly using the Stockholm Convention to apply trade restrictive measures on low-priced generics manufactured outside the EU and used its dominance in the decision-making committees to make unfair decisions disregarding due process. In a report "Deceitful Decisions at the Subsidiary Body of the Stockholm Convention", he chronicles how the EU dominance in the decision-making process flouted the rules of the Stockholm convention and cautions that accountability and due process had to be restored to ensure the survival of the Stockholm Convention.

Al-Qaeda's credit crunch

MICHAEL JACOBSON and MATTHEW LEVITT of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy investigate how operational setbacks have affected Al-Qaeda’s long-term funding efforts in the wake of declining popularity of the group. In a Jane’s Strategic Advisory Services article, "Staying solvent - Assessing al-Qaeda’s fnancial portfolio", they argue that if the trends of financial stresses in Al-Qaeda continued, it could further degenerate the core of Al-Qaeda and devolve the internationalised insurgency embodied by Al-Qaeda into a more localised, and less lethal terrorist threat.

A future for water

PETER GLEICK, President of the Pacific Institute in Oakland states that heightened risk of violent conflicts over water shortages, contamination, and allocations across the globe calls for fundamental changes in the way we manage and use the precious commodity.In an article in the World Policy Journal, "Facing Down the Hydro-Crisis", he calls for a Third Water Era incorporating a Soft Path, a fundamental re-evaluation of water planning, policy and management utilizing technology, environmental science, economics and new institutional approaches to address unresolved water challenges and climate change.

China's century? or not?

MINXIN PEI at the China Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace expresses skepticism at conventional wisdom that the Great Recession helped China more than any other state pointing out that the Chinese themselves were not impressed about predictions of their dominance. In a Newsweek article, "Why China Won't Rule the World", he points to inefficient lending, projected delinquencies, overcapacities, rising ethnic separatism and lack of leadership in global fora to assert that there is still a wide gap between Western and Chinese perceptions of the Chinese century.

Reviving nuclear energy

MATTHEW BUNN and MARTIN MALIN of the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University state that global nuclear capacity had to be tripled by 2050 to make a meaningful contribution to the mitigation of carbon emissions and that would entail an increase in the pace of addition of nuclear plants from 4 currently to 25 annually. In an article for Innovations, the MIT Press Quarterly, "Enabling a Nuclear Revival—And Managing Its Risks", they call for increased levels of international cooperation and stronger international institutions to achieve nuclear safety, security, nonproliferation, and waste management which were essential  enablers  for  large-scale  nuclear  energy  growth.