Analyzing Pakistan

Experts led by STEPHEN COHEN of the Brookings Institution present a grim but realistic picture of Pakistan which was failing along multiple dimensions with a rapidly deteriorating law and order situation, while analyzing potential future scenarios. In a series of analyses presented in Bellagio, Italy, "Pakistan's Future: The Bellagio Papers", they question the will of the Pakistani elite to make structural and ideological changes that would allow it to become a state at peace with itself and its neighbors while discounting the capability of outside powers such as the U.S. to transform Pakistan.

Anarchy in Pakistan

AHMED RASHID, Pakistani journalist and author of "Descent into Chaos: The U.S. and the Disaster in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia" states that Pakistan's selective approach to countering extremism and its military's preoccupation with India had to end before it could defeat the jihadi menace. In an opinion piece for the The National Interest, "The Anarchic Republic of Pakistan", he states that groundwork was being laid for a genuine democratic dispensation inspite of the incompetence of the Government and that if modernization of juduciary and police services were coupled with policies to enhance economic stability, Pakistan had a brighter future than being currently portrayed.

Dangerous mutations within Pakistan's jihadi infrastructure

NICHOLAS SCHMIDLE, fellow at the New America Foundation states that a profound change had occured in the dynamic between the Pakistan-army and ISI on the one-hand and their jihadi clients on the other and within the jihadis between the old guard which acted on behalf of the state and the new guard which sought to overthrow the state leading to the kidnap and murder of Khalid Khwaja an important and outspoken player in the jihadi firmament.
In an article in The New Republic, "In a Ditch", he attributes this to the formation of the Pakistani Taliban from the rank and file of the traditional jihadi organizations after the storming of Islamabad's Red Mosque in 2007 and their deep mistrust of traditional authorities such as intelligence agencies, tribal structures, and mainstream Islamist parties. He also cautions that these mutant, smaller outfits were less amenable to bribes, negotiations and settlements and hence were even more dangerous than their creators.

Wait and watch

SUSHANT SAREEN of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses argues that although an American exit from Afghanistan would in the worst case lead to a "terrorists r us" AfPak with India needing to work towards preventing the fallout, it might actually be a good thing in the post 9-11 world. In an IDSA Comments article, "AfPak dialectics can work in India’s favour", he argues that an American exit would ensure enhanced strategic leverage of the US over Pakistan with Pakistan being caught in a Catch-22 situation either bowing to international dictates on rooting jihadists or risk international isolation.

The nuclear headache

Bruce Riedel, senior fellow at Brookings' Saban Center for Middle East Policy claims that the Pakistan army’s offensive in Waziristan and the growing backlash among the public against the Taliban and al Qaeda offered Washington an opportunity to improve its image in Pakistan. In an article, "Pakistan, the next nuclear nightmare", he states that if the Obama administration showed continued resolve in Afghanistan, Pakistan would follow suit against the Taliban.