Strategic Communications and National Strategy

PAUL CORNISH, JULIAN LINDLEY-FRENCH and CLAIRE YORKE of the Chatham House raise awareness of the role and potential of strategic communications as a means of delivering policy and seek to clarify how strategic communications could help governments manage and respond to current and future security challenges.
In a Chatham House report, "Strategic Communications and National Strategy", they argue that strategic communications should not be understood to be merely a messaging activity, but as the core of a comprehensive strategic engagement effort – integrating multi-media, multi-outlet, community outreach and face-to-face efforts in a single campaign designed for adaptation to a complex and changing environment.
They also state that strategic communications could challenge governments to explain themselves more clearly and convincingly in order to gain and maintain public support for policy and in order to ensure that messages and actions do not conflict with one another and undermine the competence and reputation of government.

Analysis of China’s cyber warfare capabilities

DESMOND BALL of the Strategic and Defence Studies Center at the Australian National University at Canberra analyzes the development of China's cyber-warfare capabilities since the mid-1990s, the intelligence and military organizations involved, and the particular capabilities that have been demonstrated in defence exercises and in attacks on computer systems and networks in other countries.
In an article in Security Challenges, "China’s cyber warfare capabilities", he states that it was often very difficult to determine whether these attacks originated with official agencies or private "Netizens" as well as that China's demonstrated offensive cyber-warfare capabilities were fairly rudimentary such as denial-of-service, Trojan horse etc. that have been fairly easy to detect and remove. He also states that  there was no evidence that China's cyber-warriors could penetrate highly secure networks or systematically cripple selected command and control, air defence and intelligence networks and databases of advanced  adversaries, or to conduct deception operations by secretly manipulating the data in these networks. 

He concludes that it could however employ asymmetric strategies designed to exploit the relatively greater dependence on IT by its potential adversaries but could not compete in extended scenarios of sophisticated information warfare operations and would function best when used pre-emptively, as the PLA now practices in its exercises.

Shale Gas: hype vs reality

PAUL STEVENS of the Chatham House states that the 'shale gas revolution' which was responsible for a huge increase in unconventional gas production in the US over the last couple of years was creating huge investor uncertainties for international gas markets and renewables and could result in serious gas shortages within the next 10 years.
In a Chatham House report, "The 'Shale Gas Revolution': Hype and Reality" he states that the global recession that caused a drop in the gas demand and the sudden and unexpected development of unconventional gas supplies in the US had contributed to a steep fall in gas prices. He casts serious doubt over industry confidence in the 'revolution', questioning whether it can spread beyond the US, or indeed be maintained within it, as environmental concerns, high depletion rates and the fear that US circumstances may be impossible to replicate elsewhere, came to the fore.
He avers that investor uncertainty would reduce investment in future gas supplies to lower levels than would have happened had the 'shale gas revolution' not hit the headlines. He cautions that although the markets would eventually solve the problem, rising gas demand and the long lead-in-times on most gas projects would inflict high prices on consumers in the medium term.

Training Afghan security forces: Lessons from the USSR

OLGA OLIKER of the RAND Corporation presents an overview of Soviet efforts to improve and facilitate the training and development of Afghan security forces from 1920 to 1989 that could inform current approaches to planning and operating with Afghan forces and overcoming cultural challenges.
In her RAND monograph, "Building Afghanistan's Security Forces in Wartime The Soviet Experience", she states that although the personnel of the Soviet military, ministry of the interior (MVD) and KGB were tasked with coordinating the efforts of the Afghan armed forces, the 'Sarandoy' gendarmerie-like police force, and KhAD intelligence services, respectively, there was poor co-ordination among each other and such stove-piping among the Soviets were mirrored within the Afghans and this was compounded by limited information sharing by the Soviets with their Afghan counterparts because of personal mistrust and security concerns.
The Afghan conscript army continuously experienced high desertion due to poor conditions, political, tribal, and ethnic tensions as well as targeting by insurgent groups and poor maintenance ensured that equipment was wasted while militias were encouraged which had little loyalty to the Afghan government.
She concludes that the ISAF could learn some lessons from the Soviet experience in terms of a greater Soviet willingness to deploy large numbers of police advisors, well-matched in rank and age to Afghan counterparts, better retention in volunteer Sarandoy force as well as the dangers of relying on militia.

H2O leverage

BRAHMA CHELLANEY of the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi draws attention to the China's rise as a hydro-hegemon assuming unchallenged riparian preeminence by controlling the headwaters of multiple international rivers and manipulating their cross-border flows and acquiring leverage against its neighbors by undertaking massive hydro-engineering projects on transnational rivers.
In a Japan Times article "China's unparalleled rise as a hydro-hegemon", he states that riparian neighbors in South and South-East Asia were bound by water pacts in contrast to Beijing which did not have a single water treaty with any co-riparian country. Beijing rejected the notion of water sharing or institutionalized co-operation with lower riparian states in favor of bilateral initiatives even as it promoted multilateralism in other areas on the world stage, causing water to increasingly become a political divide in its relations to neighbors like India, Russia, Kazakhstan and Nepal as well as the states of the lower Mekong.
He also states that these water disputes were likely to worsen with China's focus on erecting mega-dams on the Mekong, Brahmaputra and Illy would cause significant disruptions to countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam and Kazakhstan, changing the status quo on flows of international rivers and calls for cooperation to halt Beijing's unilateral appropriation of shared water resources as pivotal to Asian peace and stability.

Sustainable urban transportation choices

DEBORAH GORDON of the Energy and Climate program at the Carnegie Endowment and DANIEL SPERLING, director of University of California Davis' Institute of Transportation Studies state that the global proliferation of vehicles presented two alternatives: one where cheap oil, free roads, sprawled development and subsidized home ownership would result in a foreboding car monoculture and an alternative option involving low-carbon, location-efficient, economically productive mobility where  Government, industry, and consumers—especially in emerging economies—could reinvent transportation models and employ innovative solutions. 

In their European Financial Review article "Critical Crossroad: Advancing Global Opportunities to Transform Transportation", they state that the proliferation of automobiles alongwith the the rise of megacities would spur a spiraling motorization process that would result in unhealthy, inefficient, unsustainable cities and crushing financial burdens and advocate an intervention to move away from wasteful transportation system to more sustainable, diverse approach that mimics natural ecosystem with the direct involvement of business, government, and consumers that would transform vehicles, transform fuels, and transform mobility.

They state that transportation could be redesigned as a system and not be bound to a single mode and provide examples of cutting-edge cities which were leading the way on a number of fronts, using strategic policy tools to advance low-carbon mobility.

SDR as a reserve currency

JOSEPH E GAGNON, fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics argues that IMF’s Special Drawing Right (SDR) could serve as a solution to address the asymmetry of international reserve assets and enhance reserve diversity and reduce distortions caused by excessive reliance on the US dollar as the main reserve asset.
In his article, “A Currency System for a Multi-Polar World”, he outlines his 2-step proposal for the IMF

1. expand the SDR basket to include the currencies of all countries that have sound macroeconomic policies and whose bond markets meet minimum standards of openness and supervision;
2. create synthetic SDR bonds backed by medium-term sovereign bonds denominated in the currencies of the SDR basket.

He states that several dozen countries would qualify for inclusion in the SDR, including almost all advanced countries and a number of developing countries, and the IMF had acknowledged the benefits of a broader SDR basket for reserve diversification and for financial development in emerging markets. He also states that synthetic SDR bonds could be backed by sovereign debt in the currencies of the SDR basket and tradable among investors like exchange-traded funds (ETF), providing investors with a standardized asset that provides both a high degree of diversification and a deep and liquid market.

Gear-shift in Car manufacturing

MATTEO FERRAZZI of Unicredit Group and ANDREA GOLDSTEIN of the OECD analyze the transformation of the global car industry, a cornerstone of global manufacturing in terms of turnover, employment, trade and technology incubation.
They state that global economic crisis had magnified pre-existing challenges, accelerated the rebalancing of global economic activity between industrial and emerging economies with a dramatic shift in the location of production with BRIC countries expanding their share from 10% to 33% in a period of 10 years. 
In their report for Chatham House' World's Industrial Transformation Series, "The New Geography of Automotive Manufacturing", they conclude that the industry would continue to be global, with new players (from China and India) increasing their share of fast-growing emerging markets and gradually become capable of challenging the incumbents in Western markets.

Mapping the World's Changing Industrial Landscape

DONALD HEPBURN, fellow of International Economics at Chatham House traces the changes in the world’s industrial landscape over the past 25 years and states that globalization, lower trade barriers, transport costs and a surge in international capital flows were a powerful enabler of transformation of the industrial landscape. He states that manufacturing shifted from industrialized to developing countries with developing countries increasing their share from 20% in 1995 to 28% in 2008 while industry’s share of world value added fell from 35% in 1985 to 27% in 2008 driven by fragmentation of the operations followed by outsourcing
In his Chatham House article, "Mapping the World's Changing Industrial Landscape", he states that that while demand drivers such as demographic factors such as urbanization, ageing, income growth and elasticity, and changing tastes had the potential to transform large swathes of industries such as consumer durables, automobiles, aviation, and health services; supply drivers such as availability of skilled labour, capital, infrastructure and supportive business environment could determine growth of industries and services within the developing countries. He cautions that the shift of industry to developing countries could be slowed by increased transport costs, changes in exchange rates and a backlash against globalization in developed countries if growth proved elusive and unemployment stayed high.

Arctic as a 'global common'

P K GAUTAM, fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses advocates a stance on the Arctic region as a global 'common' and calls for protection of its unique ecology and calls upon New Delhi to play an increasingly active role in Arctic affairs through ad-hoc observer membership of the Arctic Council similar to its stance in global "commons" negotiations such as space and climate change.

In his IDSA issue brief, "The Arctic as a Global Common", he states that the current discourse on the Arctic was dominated by the Arctic five and the Arctic Council with the focus more around territorial and economic claims, and resource exploitation rather than protection of the unique ecology of the Arctic.

He avers that Arctic and the preservation of its ecology could be positioned as a "common heritage of mankind", the concept by which global 'commons' such as seabed, ocean floor, outer space, lunar minerals, geostationary orbit, solar energy, internet etc. are currently governed.

Chinese checkers in Central Asia

FRANCOIS GODEMENT, JérôME Doyon, Jean-Pierre Cabestan, Marie-Hélène Schwoob, Martina Bassan of the Asia Centre, Sciences Po, analyze content in Chinese language publications in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan to argue that Central Asia with a population of 66 million and source of more than 10 percent of China's oil and gas imports was fast becoming a laboratory for Chinese foreign policy.

In a China Analysis article for the European Council for Foreign Relations, "The New Great Game in Central Asia", they state that Beijing had set its sights on Central Asia as it became increasingly important as a lower-risk source of oil and gas, a market for consumer goods and core of the Shanghai Co-operation Organization (SCO). They state that Beijing could play an increasing role in Central Asian geopolitics by mobilising its oil companies and forex reserves to counterbalance the influence of Washington and Tokyo in the energy sector and integrate further into the infrastructure and transportation sector.

Blueprint for enhancing U.S.-India cooperation

ROBERT BLACKWILL and NARESH CHANDRA, co-chairs of the Joint Study Group sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations and Aspen Institute India recommend Washington to express strong support New Delhi's peaceful rise as a crucial component of Asian security and stability, and call for both countries to endorse a long term residual U.S. military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014 and advocate a resumption of regular meetings of the Quad states (U.S., India, Japan and Australia) as well as periodic invitations to like-minded Asian nations.

Their report, "The United States and India: A Shared Strategic Future", covers areas such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, Middle East, economic and defense co-operation, climate change, energy technology and makes the following key recommendations:

On Pakistan:

• Classified exchanges between U.S. and India on multiple Pakistan contingencies
• Conditioning U.S. military aid to Pakistan on concrete anti-terrorist measures by the Pakistan military against groups inimical to India and the U.S. in Afghanistan
• U.S. to provide technical assistance to Pakistan to protect its nuclear arsenal
• India to continue bilateral negotiations with Pakistan on issues including Kashmir and trilateral discussions with Afghanistan

On Afghanistan

• India to intensify multidimensional co-operation with Afghanistan.
• Determine usefulness of Indian training of Afghanistan security forces

On China and Asia:

• Jointly and individually enlist China’s cooperation on matters of global and regional concern and not desire confrontation with Beijing.
• Brief each other on their assessments of China and intensify consultations on Asian security.

On the Middle East:

• Collaborate on democratic transitions in the Middle East—with Arab interest and agreement.
• India to intensify discussions with Iran concerning the stability of Iraq and Afghanistan.

On economic cooperation:

• Enhance their Strategic Dialogue to include economics and trade.
• Begin discussions on a free trade agreement.

On climate change and energy technology, the collaboration should:

• Bridge disagreements and identify creative areas for collaboration.
• Conduct joint feasibility study on space-based solar power.

On defense cooperation, the United States should:

• Train and provide expertise to the Indian military in areas such as space and cyberspace operations where India’s defense establishment is currently weak, but its civil and private sector has strengths.
• The United States to help strengthen India’s indigenous defense industry.

India-China-Africa triangle

CALESTOUS JUMA, professor at Harvard University advocates a reconstruction of Africa’s relations with the rest of the world through its long-term economic objectives of adding value to natural resources, expanding manufacturing and reinvestment of revenues in infrastructure and technical training.

In his op-ed in Kenya’s The Nation, “Africa’s solution to Asian interests”, he states that a foreign policy that focused relationships with China and India on economic issues such as infrastructure, skills transfer and market access would ensure Africa developed enough to become a global economic actor. in the wake of significant expansion of the Sino-African and Indo-African bilateral economic relationship.

He concludes with a call for tripartite consultations to create a transparent platform for economic diplomacy and diminish perceptions of Sino-Indian competition in Africa, in the wake of a significant and parallel expansion of Sino-African and Indo-African economic relationship.

Analysis of world energy consumption

Analysts at British Petroleum state that global energy consumption in 2010 grew by 5.6% with the OECD growth at 3.5% and non-OECD growth at 7.5%, the highest rate since 1973 with total energy consumption surpassing the pre-recession peak reached in 2008.
In their 60th annual review of world energy, "BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011", they state that oil at 34% continued as the world's leading fuel, followed by coal (30%), natural gas (24%),Hydel (6%), Nuclear (5%) and renewables (1%) although coal consumption grew by 7.6% and natural gas consumption grew by 7.4%.
India's energy consumption increased by 9.2% to 524 mil tonnes oil equivalent from 2009 on the back of a strong growth in coal consumption (11%) and natural gas (21%). Although nuclear energy grew 37%, it still constituted  1% of the energy mix.

Mobile financial services in India

Analysts at the Boston Consulting Group state that provision of mobile financial services (MFS) could raise India's financial inclusion rate in 2020 to 65% up from the projected 53%. 
In a Telenor-funded study, "The Socio-Economic Impact of Mobile Financial Services - Analysis of Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Serbia and Malaysia", they state that mobile service providers had  inherent strengths that enabled them to play a strong role in the financial sector:
1. Focus on 'long-tail' unbanked customers
2. Availability of support infrastructure such as mobile handsets 
3. Existing customer relationships
4. Strong brand recognition
5. Large distribution networks
They state that provision of mobile financial services could provide hitherto un-banked individuals with a wide range of financial services, e-government services and efficient welfare distribution enhancing GDP and tax revenues by 5% and creating 4 million new jobs in the Indian economy.
They conclude that a comprehensive regulatory framework including a first tier addressing the use of MFS agents, money laundering and terrorist financing, a second tier addressing consumer protection and payment systems and a third  tier addressing the underlying framework such as data privacy, e-commerce, e-security, general banking, taxation and general telecommunications was vital for this to succeed.

Economic Cyber Warfare

PAUL CORNISH of the International Security Program at the Chatham House reviews the vulnerability of developed states to aggressive economic action through cyberspace asking whether economic cyber warfare should be considered a strategic problem. 
In his working paper, "The Vulnerabilities of Developed States to Economic Cyber Warfare", he states that a composite of economic warfare and cyber warfare - economic cyber warfare could offer a low-cost, low-risk alternative to cause grave damage to an increasingly interconnected global economy, a parasitism of sorts whereby the attacker would seek to exploit the target economy through espionage and intellectual property theft, rather than to destroy or impede it. 
He concludes that economic cyber warfare should be subject to sustained and careful scrutiny requiring more agility and mutually supportive relationships between national governments and critical sectors of the economy such as science, innovation, manufacturing, industry, financial and banking sectors since the first casualties of economic cyber warfare were likely to be confidence and predictability that form the bedrock of the national economy and the credibility of national government.

State of Indian philanthropy - 2011

ARPAN SHETH and MADHUR SINGHAL of Bain & Company claim that the entire philanthropy ecosystem consisting of donors, support networks and grassroots organisations had expanded dramatically over the past five years. 
In their report, "India Philanthropy Report 2011", based on interviews with philanthropists and experts on philanthropy in India they state that private charitable giving now represented about 0.3-0.4% of the GDP, a growth of 50% since 2006 backed by a surge in the population of high net-worth individuals, expansion of the scale of support networks and change in attitudes about giving as well as increasing awareness.
They outline four key areas to enhance private philanthropy: 
1. Enhanced accountability and transparency throughout the giving chain;
2. Professional NGOs with strong financial planning and operational skills;
3. Continued promotion of a culture of giving;
4. Collaboration with the government on adoption of more philanthropy-friendly policies.

A 'nanotech' future

Researchers under the direction of JUDIT CASTELLA of the Barcelona based Fundació Catalana per a la Recerca i la Innovació (FCRI) review nanotechnology , its economic and social implications, and its role in public policy and state that private investment in nanotech had exceeded public funding with a total overall annual R&D spend of over $4 billion led by US, Japan and the EU.

In a report for the FCRI, "Nanotechnology: What is it and how will it affect us?", they state that nanotechnology could cause significant disruption in multiple industries and require massive investments in infrastructure with development forecast over three phases: 

1. the current early-stage spanning 5 years focused on investigation phase, 

2: a commercial development phase spanning 5-10 years wherein applications would begin to be produced on an industrial scale and 

3: a mature phase spanning 10-15 years featuring a consolidation of the industry with a market for nanotechnology-enabled applications exceeding $ 1 trillion.

They state that nanotechnology could be compared to electricity which caused disruption in most industries on introduction contrasting that with genetics which impacted only medicine and agriculture and was impeded by social concerns. They conclude that the challenge for governments was to secure a niche for new economic growth by empowering local industries to assimilate new technologies, building a large, multi-disciplinary educated workforce, and addressing public concern over health and environmental issues.

Halting the decline in fish stocks

ACHIM STEINER of the UN Environment Program and JOSHUA REICHERT of the Pew Group state that the high seas containing the largest reservoir of Earth's biodiversity was under strain with the UN estimating that 85% of the world's fish stocks were fully exploited in the run-up to Rio+20 summit in June 2012, being held 20 years after the landmark Earth summit in Rio in 1992.

In their op-ed for the Project Syndicate, "Fixing Our Broken Oceans", they state that fragmented marine management practices, lack of high-seas governance, and over-subsidies for fishing that have resulted in twice as many industrial fishing vessels catching fish as the oceans can sustain.

They advocate an investment of $110 billion over the coming years in strengthened fisheries management including the establishment of marine protected areas, decommissioning and reduction of fleet capacity of industrial-scale large vessels, retraining of workers impacted by job losses, and policy measures to enable a recovery of fishery stocks.

Infrastructure development in North-East

SHIVANANDA of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses reviews India's infrastructure in the North-East in the backdrop of China's rapidly augmented infrastructure along the Line of Actual Control with all-weather, double-lane roads, a road network of 58,000 kms, extension of Qinghai-Tibet railway up to Shigatse and additional airfields under construction in Tibet. He states that all passes and military posts on the LAC had been linked with highways, logistic depots and military installations and China could mobilize more than 30 divisions and outnumber Indian forces by 3:1.

In his op-ed for IDSA Comments, "Is India’s Transport Infrastructure Prepared for the Eastern Front?", states that although infrastructure development had picked up in the northern sector there was a considerable lag in the eastern sector undermining New Delhi's capability to thwart external aggression in the eastern front.

He calls for enhanced transport connectivity in the region with establishment of railway networks in the hinterland, timely construction of roads that extend to the borders, and expedited construction of bridges.