Monday, April 18, 2011

The Ferghana tinderbox

PASCALE MEIGE WAGNER head of the International Committee of Red Cross' operations in Eastern Europe and Central Asia reviews the social and political dynamics in the Ferghana valley at the intersection of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, in an analysis of the violence in 2010 in the cities of Andijan, Rasht and Osh.

In a discussion at Chatham House, "Local and Regional Politics in the Ferghana Valley", he states that a complex mix of factors such as socio-economic dissatisfaction, widespread corruption, precarious ethnic balance and distribution and religious radicalisation combined with increasing nationalism and unclear border demarcation created a volatile condition with a short fuse for violence.
He concludes that sparking violence in the region was easy and international players should rethink their approaches as well as involve Russia and China through either the Shanghai Co-operation Organization or the Collective Security Treaty organization.

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