A 'nanotech' future

Researchers under the direction of JUDIT CASTELLA of the Barcelona based Fundació Catalana per a la Recerca i la Innovació (FCRI) review nanotechnology , its economic and social implications, and its role in public policy and state that private investment in nanotech had exceeded public funding with a total overall annual R&D spend of over $4 billion led by US, Japan and the EU.

In a report for the FCRI, "Nanotechnology: What is it and how will it affect us?", they state that nanotechnology could cause significant disruption in multiple industries and require massive investments in infrastructure with development forecast over three phases: 

1. the current early-stage spanning 5 years focused on investigation phase, 

2: a commercial development phase spanning 5-10 years wherein applications would begin to be produced on an industrial scale and 

3: a mature phase spanning 10-15 years featuring a consolidation of the industry with a market for nanotechnology-enabled applications exceeding $ 1 trillion.

They state that nanotechnology could be compared to electricity which caused disruption in most industries on introduction contrasting that with genetics which impacted only medicine and agriculture and was impeded by social concerns. They conclude that the challenge for governments was to secure a niche for new economic growth by empowering local industries to assimilate new technologies, building a large, multi-disciplinary educated workforce, and addressing public concern over health and environmental issues.

Halting the decline in fish stocks

ACHIM STEINER of the UN Environment Program and JOSHUA REICHERT of the Pew Group state that the high seas containing the largest reservoir of Earth's biodiversity was under strain with the UN estimating that 85% of the world's fish stocks were fully exploited in the run-up to Rio+20 summit in June 2012, being held 20 years after the landmark Earth summit in Rio in 1992.

In their op-ed for the Project Syndicate, "Fixing Our Broken Oceans", they state that fragmented marine management practices, lack of high-seas governance, and over-subsidies for fishing that have resulted in twice as many industrial fishing vessels catching fish as the oceans can sustain.

They advocate an investment of $110 billion over the coming years in strengthened fisheries management including the establishment of marine protected areas, decommissioning and reduction of fleet capacity of industrial-scale large vessels, retraining of workers impacted by job losses, and policy measures to enable a recovery of fishery stocks.

Infrastructure development in North-East

SHIVANANDA of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses reviews India's infrastructure in the North-East in the backdrop of China's rapidly augmented infrastructure along the Line of Actual Control with all-weather, double-lane roads, a road network of 58,000 kms, extension of Qinghai-Tibet railway up to Shigatse and additional airfields under construction in Tibet. He states that all passes and military posts on the LAC had been linked with highways, logistic depots and military installations and China could mobilize more than 30 divisions and outnumber Indian forces by 3:1.

In his op-ed for IDSA Comments, "Is India’s Transport Infrastructure Prepared for the Eastern Front?", states that although infrastructure development had picked up in the northern sector there was a considerable lag in the eastern sector undermining New Delhi's capability to thwart external aggression in the eastern front.

He calls for enhanced transport connectivity in the region with establishment of railway networks in the hinterland, timely construction of roads that extend to the borders, and expedited construction of bridges.

State-wise analysis of the Indian growth miracle

ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN of the Peterson Institute and UTSAV KUMAR of the Asian Development Bank analyze patterns in India's decadal growth in 2001-2009 vs the 1993-2001 as the turnaround in policy entered its third decade since 1991. 

In a Business Standard op-ed, "India: Growth in 2000s- Key Facts", they present four key findings on the state of growth in India  

1. Doubling of growth: Per-capita growth rates doubled in the 2000s in most states with the exception of Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan 

2. Increasing divergence: Richer states on average grew faster and pulled away from the rest and inequality increased in spite of the stellar performance of hitherto laggards such as Bihar, Orissa and Chattisgarh 

3. Vulnerability to globalization: Globalization catalyzed growth as well as decline exemplified by states such as Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Maharshtra where growth accelerated prior to 2008 and declined sharply during the global financial crisis 

4. Demographic complacence: Demographically aging states such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Gujarat did remarkably well while demographically dynamic states such as U.P, Rajastan and M.P did not fare as well.

They state that the Indian growth miracle continued to confound with India capacious enough to allow both Bania, reforming Gujarat and Marxist, reform-resistant Kerala to flourish.

Unleashing India

JESSICA SEDDON of the Council on Foreign Relations states that Indian economy and the polity had built up substantial momentum albeit on a creaky infrastructure and poor services, undercutting its demographic dividend.

In an article for the Harvard International Review, "India's Catastrophic Landscape: Fixing a flawed foundation", she advocates a paradigm shift from a focus on particular policy changes such as labor market reform or financial sector reform to that of political reform where focus was on revamping the state's ability as an organization to deliver on the infrastructure and services for its citizens.

She calls for three elements: clarification of roles and responsibilities and untangling of three layers of government, improvement of management information systems and setting up of systems to recruit the right people such as intra-party democracy and campaign finance reform as part of a broader management overhaul of the state in response to growing disenchantment.

Analysis of Russian Arctic Policy

ELANA WILSON ROWE of the Norwegian Institute for International Affairs, MARLENE LARUELLE at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University and DMITRY GORENBURG, editor of Russian Politics and Law analyze aspects of Russia's Arctic policy such as politics in the Russian North, demographics and the role of the Russian military in the Arctic, in a study, "Russian Policy Options in the Arctic" for the Russian analytical digest.
Elana Wilson Rowe provides an introduction to the politics of the Russian North, and outlines the dichotomy of an ‘open’ North with wider international co-operation and a ‘closed’ North with an emphasis on defending its national interests and authority and calls for greater attention on the overlaps and tensions between these two modes. 
Marlene Laruelle reviews the Moscow's demographic challenges in the Russian Arctic and states that as it embarked on greater resource extraction in the region, Moscow would have to address challenges to key aspects of its Russian identity in the wake of an influx of migrants from Central Asia and China.
Dmitry Gorenburg states that Russia’s military and security strategy in the Arctic has shifted from unilateral military posturing to peaceful dispute resolution due to a perception of a co-operative approach as being more conducive to exploration and investment in Arctic natural resources. He states that the Arctic was unexpectedly becoming a venue for strengthening international cooperation although the role of growing non-Arctic powers such as China and Korea was an unknown for the near future.

Roadmap for Pakistan

HASSAN ABBAS of the Asia Society and a team of American and Pakistani experts focus on Pakistan’s internal crises and define a road map for establishing stability, a sustainable democratic order, and a pluralistic society as a way to strengthen and develop the country in service of its population.
In their study group report, "PAKISTAN 2020 A Vision for Building a Better Future", they focus on seven core issues i.e. democratic institutions, rule of law, human development, energy, assistance to flood victims, internal security and peace with India.
They call for international assistance to support Pakistan keeping in mind its historical insecurity, while providing assistance in reforming its civil institutions, democracy and in addressing regional tensions.

A new approach to Nuclear spent fuel management

CHARLES FERGUSON, CLIFFORD SINGER, JACK SPENCER and SHARON SQUASSONI state that the central planning approach to U.S. spent nuclear fuel management had been a glaring exception to the trend toward a market-driven energy sector and each of the three past approaches - breeding fuel, prompt burial and deep burn had failed due to what they view as inflexibility to changing economic and political conditions.
In a report of the Proliferation Prevention Program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, "U.S. Spent Nuclear Fuel: A market based solution", they envisage a market-driven approach that would fundamentally alter the notion of spent nuclear fuel from a liability as it is currently to an asset alongwith provisions of adequate financial incentives to states and communities hosting long-term spent fuel management facilities.
The key components of their proposal include payments into escrow funds for spent fuel management rather than to the government, reassessment of radio-isotope containment criteria, licenses for away-from-reactor storage facilities alongwith removal of restrictions on volumes and site duration, removal of the requirement for prompt burial, equal treatment of all states, allowing private sector multiple options on fuel storage and importing foreign spent fuel.
The authors state that this could enhance U.S' ability as a nuclear supplier to influence other countries' nuclear fuel cycle choices and enhance regional security and support nuclear non-proliferation initiatives.

Black to White money

ZELJKO BJELAJAC of the University of Novi Sad states that the combination of over 100 tax havens worldwide, correspondent accounts that nullify the 'Know Your Customer (KYC)' principle and proliferation of new electronic payment systems have significantly enhanced the scale of money laundering operations by transnational organized crime.
In an analysis of contemporary money-laundering for the Research Institute for European and American Studies (RIEAS), "Contemporary Tendencies in Money Laundering Methods", he draws attention to the inherent risks of electronic payment systems such as lack of transparency, inadequate recording and alerting on suspicious transactions and hindered access to judicial authorities that have been identified by the expert Financial Agenda Task Force (FATF).
He highlights global co-operation including universal standards for prevention of money-laundering and funding of terrorism, implementation across all jurisdictions, establishment of supervisory and internal controls, specialized education and staff training methodologies, detection and prosecution to reduce the risks arising out of money-laundering.

Global scientific collaboration

Fellows of the Royal Society headed by CHRIS LLEWELYN SMITH survey the changing landscape for science and innovation in the 21st century, its networks of collaboration and implications for global decision-makers in science, business, NGO's and governments for addressing 'global challenges' such as climate change, food security, and infectious diseases.

In their study in cooperation with Elsevier, "Knowledge, networks and nations: global scientific collaboration in the 21st century", they state that international collaboration comprised of upto 35% of all publications in international journals and was driven by scientists themselves in their quest to work with the best people, institutions and equipment with the R&D budget estimated at $1.2 trillion spanning 7 million researchers across the world. 

They recommend strengthened support for international science and collaboration, development of national and international science strategies, international capacity building to ensure sharing of the benefits of scientific research and development of better indices to evaluate global science.

Mineral Security

CHRISTINE PARTHEMORE of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) explores a range of potential vulnerabilities that stem from the dependence of the U.S. defense supply chains on minerals such as lithium, gallium, rhenium, tantalum, niobium and rare earths such as neodymium, samarium and dysprosium on the back of China's supply blockade of rare-earth minerals to Japan in 2010.

In a CNAS report, "Elements of Security: Mitigating the Risks of U.S. Dependence on Critical Minerals", she states that minerals could affect U.S. interests through four factors: 1) an evolving energy paradigm, 2) increasing space exploration 3) accelerating seabed exploration and 4) a changing defense industrial base while policymakers were currently hampered by a lack of access to appropriate information and where hype could drive policy debates.

She states that vulnerability to mineral supply disruptions could cause high cost overruns for weapons, lags in delivery of equipment, provide leverage to supplier countries and also inhibit development of clean energy technologies. She concludes that the U.S. should conduct new assessments of its defense supply chains, enhance its data collection capabilities on critical minerals as well as promote information-sharing with the private sector, integrate mineral supply vulnerabilities into its war-gaming scenarios as well as for Senate to ratify the U.N convention on the law of the sea (UNCLOS).

Integration of Nepalese ex-guerillas

INDRA ADHIKARI of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses reviews key issues around integration of Maoist ex-combatants as part of the broader Nepalese peace process comparing with the experiences in post-Apartheid South Africa.

In an IDSA comment, "Relevance of the Nepal Army Proposal on Integration", he analyzes the Nepalese army’s proposal of creation of a separate but mixed force drawn from ex-combatants and the existing security sectors in a separate directorate under the Nepalese army and states that this would be a balanced approach towards reconciliation. 

He concludes that this proposal addressed the Maoists’ insistence on integration of the ex-combatants as well as  non-Maoists’ anxiety that the army could face a professional crisis and politicisation.

India's evolving international role

GARETH PRICE of the Asia Task Force of UK Trade and Investment examines India's growing influence on international affairs, trade and investment, security and democracy, and the environment and states that India's ability to play a greater global role would evolve more naturally once its domestic development challenges were met.

In a Chatham House report, "For the Global Good: India's Developing International Role", he reviews India's history as a provider of aid to developing countries in areas such as information technology, education and low-cost alternatives in the health and agricultural sector, led mostly through the private sector and NGOs.

He concludes that India found it easier to forge deeper partnerships with other emerging powers than with established developed countries, in line with its perceived national interest, with non-interference as a cardinal principle of India's policy-making, affecting its approach to development as well as to broader foreign policy issues.

Chinese fissile stockpile estimate

HUI ZHANG of the Belfer Center's Project on Managing the Atom reviews the history of China's production of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium for nuclear weapons and uses new public information to estimate the amount of highly enriched uranium and plutonium China produced at its two gaseous diffusion plants in Lanzhou and Heping and two plutonium production complexes at Jiuquan and Guangyuan.

In an article for Science and Global Security, "China’s HEU and Plutonium Production and Stocks", his new estimates for China’s HEU and plutonium range from production of 20 ± 4 tons of HEU and 2 ± 0.5 tons of plutonium while current stockpile estimates range about 16 ± 4 tons of HEU and 1.8 ± 0.5 tons of plutonium available for weapons, at the low end of most previous independent estimates(ranging between 17–26 tons of highly enriched uranium and 2.1–6.6 tons of plutonium). 

He concludes that while Beijing’s current fissile stockpile could be sufficient for its current modernization program, these new estimates would be significant to assess China’s willingness to join a fissile material cutoff treaty and a multilateral nuclear disarmament.

Security transition in Afghanistan

SHANTHIE MARIET D’SOUZA fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore argues that high low-quality recruitment, high attrition and desertion coupled with non-standard training methodologies had affected the effectiveness of the Afghan national security forces, resulting in a mismatched ethnic composition and the rush to pass responsibility onto this relatively new and fragile force could prove disastrous for the country and the region.

In an ISAS study, “Prospects for ‘Transition’ in the Afghan Security Sector: A Reality Check?”, she draws attention to indiscipline, illiteracy, drug abuse and corruption as key problems in the backdrop of a rapid expansion of the army and police creating serious concerns of leading to a hyper-militarized state with weak civilian governance structures.

She concludes that a sustainable transition in the Afghan security sector could only be achieved in combination with a corresponding transition within the civilian sector with strengthened government institutions.

New India’s foreign policy influences

ASHOK MALIK and RORY MEDCALF analyze the impact of three dynamic, non-traditional sources of influence on Indian foreign policy - an ambitious business community, a vocal diaspora and a rambunctious and aggressive news media.

In a Lowy Institute analysis, “India’s New World: Civil Society in the making of foreign policy”, they argue that there has been a greater and unavoidable democratisation of the crafting of India’s diplomacy due to a widening of the institutional sources where the flag followed trade, migrants acted as influence multipliers and ‘tabloid’ television informed middle-class opinion.

They conclude that it was impossible to map the trajectory of Indian diplomacy without parallel engagement and assessment of civil society, the media, trade  imperatives of individual industries, and the interaction of the diaspora and domestic, highly localised politics.

Crossing the Japanese nuclear rubicon

TAKENORI HORIMOTO of the Shobi University in Saitama highlights recent developments and stumbling blocks in the increasingly close relations between Tokyo and New Delhi.
In his Asia-Pacific bulletin for the East-West Center, “The Japan-India Nuclear Agreement: Enhancing Bilateral Relations?”, he argues that the developing pattern shows the growing realization of shared strategic concerns between Japan and India: that of a rising China and calibrating relations with the United States.
He cautions that although there were indications of Tokyo’s eagerness in enhancing its strategic and economic relationship with New Delhi, a smooth conclusion of an Indo-Japan nuclear deal was not a foregone conclusion as such a deal would signify Tokyo’s abandonment of half a century of anti-weapon advocacy while the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan had further complicated the calculus of Indo-Japan nuclear co-operation.

Pakistan’s demographic genie

SHAHID JAVED BURKI, former finance minister of Pakistan reviews the trends in Pakistan’s demographics and population policies in the wake of its six-fold growth in population since its inception in 1947 with a forecast of a further doubling over the next four decades for “Reaping the Dividend”, a joint study by Woodrow Wilson center’s Asia program and the fellowship fund of Pakistan.

In his wide-ranging essay titled “Historical trends in Pakistan’s demographics and population policy”, he reviews the historical trends in Pakistan’s population trajectory, the effects of large-scale migration and diasporas, growth projections, rapid urbanization and alternate future scenarios of reaping either a demographic dividend or a catastrophe for the population, which, at a median age of 21 was one of the youngest in the world.

He states that it was imperative for Islamabad to conduct a population census coupled with a household survey and then design an urban policy to enhance the human capital of the population and also address the issues arising out of rapid urbanization, failure of which would result in a high cost for Pakistan.

Indian Ocean: A European perspective

TIM SWEIJS and JEROEN DE JONGE of the Hague Center for Strategic Studies state that the Indian Ocean and its rim with instability in its north-west corner, failing governance structures and resource competition could well become a sample stage for systemic challenges to global security even as it emerged as a key transportation hub and trade destination on the back of strong growth in its littorals.

They analyze three key themes related to Indian Ocean's maritime future in their article in Marineblad magazine, "The Maritime Future of the Indian Ocean"

1. strategic importance of the sea lines of communication (SLOC) where energy security could drive confrontation between major players,

2. vulnerability of SLOCs to the threat of non-state actors such as pirates, terrorists, and international crime syndicates and 

3. the maritime balance of power including naval assets, strategic maritime infrastructure and co-operation

They recommend closer attention to the Indian Ocean at the highest strategic levels, regional governance frameworks that facilitated smoother integration while upholding the principles of an open world economy and for industry to reassess their policies regarding supply-chain risk management.

The Ferghana tinderbox

PASCALE MEIGE WAGNER head of the International Committee of Red Cross' operations in Eastern Europe and Central Asia reviews the social and political dynamics in the Ferghana valley at the intersection of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, in an analysis of the violence in 2010 in the cities of Andijan, Rasht and Osh.

In a discussion at Chatham House, "Local and Regional Politics in the Ferghana Valley", he states that a complex mix of factors such as socio-economic dissatisfaction, widespread corruption, precarious ethnic balance and distribution and religious radicalisation combined with increasing nationalism and unclear border demarcation created a volatile condition with a short fuse for violence.
He concludes that sparking violence in the region was easy and international players should rethink their approaches as well as involve Russia and China through either the Shanghai Co-operation Organization or the Collective Security Treaty organization.