Chinese fissile stockpile estimate

HUI ZHANG of the Belfer Center's Project on Managing the Atom reviews the history of China's production of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium for nuclear weapons and uses new public information to estimate the amount of highly enriched uranium and plutonium China produced at its two gaseous diffusion plants in Lanzhou and Heping and two plutonium production complexes at Jiuquan and Guangyuan.

In an article for Science and Global Security, "China’s HEU and Plutonium Production and Stocks", his new estimates for China’s HEU and plutonium range from production of 20 ± 4 tons of HEU and 2 ± 0.5 tons of plutonium while current stockpile estimates range about 16 ± 4 tons of HEU and 1.8 ± 0.5 tons of plutonium available for weapons, at the low end of most previous independent estimates(ranging between 17–26 tons of highly enriched uranium and 2.1–6.6 tons of plutonium). 

He concludes that while Beijing’s current fissile stockpile could be sufficient for its current modernization program, these new estimates would be significant to assess China’s willingness to join a fissile material cutoff treaty and a multilateral nuclear disarmament.