Eliminating piracy in the Horn of Africa

MICHIEL HIJMANS, former commander of NATO’s anti-piracy ‘Operation Ocean Shield‘ tracks the shift in piracy over the past two years and states that piracy had shifted significantly beyond the coast of Somalia and the inter-monsoon periods due to the deployment of ‘captured‘ mother-ships that carried more pirates and weaponry alongwith hostages, faster and for longer periods of time, aided by sophisticated navigation and communication systems onboard and supported by a piracy stock market.

In an article for Chatham House publication 'The World Today', "Threats of the sea", he states that although the establishment of the Internationally recommended transit corridor (IRTC) through the Gulf of Aden, increased naval and aerial patrolling, ‚safe rooms‘ on board merchant ships, private security personnel and anti-pirate actions by local communities had helped in the fight against piracy, there were other dimensions such as economic and legal that needed to be tackled to eliminate the piracy problem which was now a 7-12 billion dollar problem with about 650 hostages at any given point in time.

He calls for an establishment of an international tribunal for piracy cases to develop a legal framework to prosecute pirates and ensure justice, capacity development in countries such as Seychelles and investment in Puntland to develop a strategic maritime hub to enable the development of alternatives to piracy for the local populace.

Strategic Communications and National Strategy

PAUL CORNISH, JULIAN LINDLEY-FRENCH and CLAIRE YORKE of the Chatham House raise awareness of the role and potential of strategic communications as a means of delivering policy and seek to clarify how strategic communications could help governments manage and respond to current and future security challenges.
In a Chatham House report, "Strategic Communications and National Strategy", they argue that strategic communications should not be understood to be merely a messaging activity, but as the core of a comprehensive strategic engagement effort – integrating multi-media, multi-outlet, community outreach and face-to-face efforts in a single campaign designed for adaptation to a complex and changing environment.
They also state that strategic communications could challenge governments to explain themselves more clearly and convincingly in order to gain and maintain public support for policy and in order to ensure that messages and actions do not conflict with one another and undermine the competence and reputation of government.

Shale Gas: hype vs reality

PAUL STEVENS of the Chatham House states that the 'shale gas revolution' which was responsible for a huge increase in unconventional gas production in the US over the last couple of years was creating huge investor uncertainties for international gas markets and renewables and could result in serious gas shortages within the next 10 years.
In a Chatham House report, "The 'Shale Gas Revolution': Hype and Reality" he states that the global recession that caused a drop in the gas demand and the sudden and unexpected development of unconventional gas supplies in the US had contributed to a steep fall in gas prices. He casts serious doubt over industry confidence in the 'revolution', questioning whether it can spread beyond the US, or indeed be maintained within it, as environmental concerns, high depletion rates and the fear that US circumstances may be impossible to replicate elsewhere, came to the fore.
He avers that investor uncertainty would reduce investment in future gas supplies to lower levels than would have happened had the 'shale gas revolution' not hit the headlines. He cautions that although the markets would eventually solve the problem, rising gas demand and the long lead-in-times on most gas projects would inflict high prices on consumers in the medium term.

Mapping the World's Changing Industrial Landscape

DONALD HEPBURN, fellow of International Economics at Chatham House traces the changes in the world’s industrial landscape over the past 25 years and states that globalization, lower trade barriers, transport costs and a surge in international capital flows were a powerful enabler of transformation of the industrial landscape. He states that manufacturing shifted from industrialized to developing countries with developing countries increasing their share from 20% in 1995 to 28% in 2008 while industry’s share of world value added fell from 35% in 1985 to 27% in 2008 driven by fragmentation of the operations followed by outsourcing
In his Chatham House article, "Mapping the World's Changing Industrial Landscape", he states that that while demand drivers such as demographic factors such as urbanization, ageing, income growth and elasticity, and changing tastes had the potential to transform large swathes of industries such as consumer durables, automobiles, aviation, and health services; supply drivers such as availability of skilled labour, capital, infrastructure and supportive business environment could determine growth of industries and services within the developing countries. He cautions that the shift of industry to developing countries could be slowed by increased transport costs, changes in exchange rates and a backlash against globalization in developed countries if growth proved elusive and unemployment stayed high.

Economic Cyber Warfare

PAUL CORNISH of the International Security Program at the Chatham House reviews the vulnerability of developed states to aggressive economic action through cyberspace asking whether economic cyber warfare should be considered a strategic problem. 
In his working paper, "The Vulnerabilities of Developed States to Economic Cyber Warfare", he states that a composite of economic warfare and cyber warfare - economic cyber warfare could offer a low-cost, low-risk alternative to cause grave damage to an increasingly interconnected global economy, a parasitism of sorts whereby the attacker would seek to exploit the target economy through espionage and intellectual property theft, rather than to destroy or impede it. 
He concludes that economic cyber warfare should be subject to sustained and careful scrutiny requiring more agility and mutually supportive relationships between national governments and critical sectors of the economy such as science, innovation, manufacturing, industry, financial and banking sectors since the first casualties of economic cyber warfare were likely to be confidence and predictability that form the bedrock of the national economy and the credibility of national government.

India's evolving international role

GARETH PRICE of the Asia Task Force of UK Trade and Investment examines India's growing influence on international affairs, trade and investment, security and democracy, and the environment and states that India's ability to play a greater global role would evolve more naturally once its domestic development challenges were met.

In a Chatham House report, "For the Global Good: India's Developing International Role", he reviews India's history as a provider of aid to developing countries in areas such as information technology, education and low-cost alternatives in the health and agricultural sector, led mostly through the private sector and NGOs.

He concludes that India found it easier to forge deeper partnerships with other emerging powers than with established developed countries, in line with its perceived national interest, with non-interference as a cardinal principle of India's policy-making, affecting its approach to development as well as to broader foreign policy issues.

The Ferghana tinderbox

PASCALE MEIGE WAGNER head of the International Committee of Red Cross' operations in Eastern Europe and Central Asia reviews the social and political dynamics in the Ferghana valley at the intersection of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, in an analysis of the violence in 2010 in the cities of Andijan, Rasht and Osh.

In a discussion at Chatham House, "Local and Regional Politics in the Ferghana Valley", he states that a complex mix of factors such as socio-economic dissatisfaction, widespread corruption, precarious ethnic balance and distribution and religious radicalisation combined with increasing nationalism and unclear border demarcation created a volatile condition with a short fuse for violence.
He concludes that sparking violence in the region was easy and international players should rethink their approaches as well as involve Russia and China through either the Shanghai Co-operation Organization or the Collective Security Treaty organization.

Springbok-elephant tango in the African jungle

ELIZABETH SIDIROPAULOS, director of the South African Institute of International Affairs explores the overlap of interests in Africa between India and South Africa and assesses whether they could be natural partners for development in Africa as it often appeared on first glance.

She argues in her Chatham House briefing paper, "India and South Africa as Partners for Development in Africa?" that New Delhi and Pretoria were both potential partners and competitors where Pretoria recognized components of India's Africa engagement such as human capital, info-comm, and agriculture in a positive light while its own articulation of its national interest was being reassessed and they also displayed substantial differences in their approach to development.

She concludes that there was scope for deepening the substance of political and economic relations between the two which had been hampered by capacity constraints on both sides and differing priorities and that in the short-term, development cooperation between the two in Africa was not a priority for either but using the private sector in this field could be a potential model.

Raising the game in Lagos

PARVATHI VASUDEVAN of the Centre for International, Strategic and Development Studies in India traces the evolution of Indo-Nigerian ties over the past 50 years from a foundation of historical & political links to one based on economic links. While India's major oil players evinced a keen interest in Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, which contributes 20% of India's oil imports, their moves had not yielded the expected benefits. In a report for the Chatham House, "The Changing Nature of Nigeria–India Relations", she calls for a rehaul of New Delhi's Africa policy with Nigeria as a template, with the key focus areas as follows:

• Enhanced commercial transparency and adherence to international legal best practices
• Increasing frequency of government-government contacts and expansion of India's diplomatic presence
• Expansion of India's Trade and Economic relations committee's mandate beyond hydrocarbons into all sectors
• Enhanced Indian media presence on the ground in Africa
• Expansion of the educational scholarships program to support Nigerian students

She concludes that New Delhi had to raise its game to compete both effectively and transparently in Africa's economy.

On "Cyber"War

PAUL CORNISH, DAVID LIVINGSTONE, DAVE CLEMENTE and CLAIRE YORKE of the Chatham House assess the evolving challenges in cyberspace and describe it as terra nullius, beyond the reach of mature political discourse providing actors opportunities to achieve strategic objectives without armed conflict, conferring disproportionate power, anonymity, a blurring of military-civilian boundaries and that cyberspace could be considered a fifth battlespace after land, water, air and space. In a Chatham House report, "On Cyber warfare", they argue that cyber warfare should be constrained and validated by politics, ethics, norms and values, to resolve its challenges while extending its complexities back into the world of politics would question deeply embedded assumptions about the primacy of the state, the authority of government and the role of government agencies and the armed forces as providers of national security.

Tibetan natural resources

ROGER HOWARD states that relations between Beijing and Lhasa would be defined by the region's natural resources and 'development' of the region would either strengthen or dissolve these political ties in the backdrop of ambitious Chinese plans to make Tibet an important 'strategic resources reserve base'. In an article for the Chatham House publication, The World Today, "Tibet's Natural Resources: Tension Over Treasure", he states that the extraction of Tibet's resources could not only shape the political relationship between Tibet and China but also have global repercussions giving China political leverage over countries importing those resources.

Fade Britannia!!

CHRISTOPHER HILL of the University of Cambridge cautions that the financial crisis had resulted in tough foreign policy choices for Britain and recommends depersonalising British foreign policy and grabbing the opportunity provided by the Lisbon Treaty to shape European diplomacy. In an article for Chatham House' publication, The World Today, "British Foreign Policy Priorities: Tough Choices", he lists anti-terrorism, foreign office and its attendant diplomatic network and a resizing of armed forces as key priorities in the wake of the financial crisis.

Planned Urbanization: The Singapore Story

Cheong Koon Hean, CEO of Singapore's Urban Redevelopment Authority draws lessons from Singapore's successful urbanization experience and states that sustainable urban development required first of all, a strategic long-term and forward-looking framework and then a judicious mix of strategic planning, environmental management and pragmatic approaches to technology. In an article for Chatham House monthly, "Future of Cities: Urban Opportunities", she outlines how the long-term framework guided multi-year plans across departments driving targeted infrastructure investments that deliver on goals for liveability and sustainability, and also states that these measures would ensure Singapore could deliver a reduction in carbon emissions of 16% by 2020.

Instability in Yemen

Ginny Hill, fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, states that Yemen's window of opportunity to shape a future based on a post-oil economy was narrowing and that Western governments needed to work towards an effective regional approach alongwith the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. In a briefing paper for the Chatham House, "Yemen: Fear of Failure", she cautions that future instability in Yemen could expand a lawless zone around the Horn of Africa with attendant piracy, smuggling and violent jihad, with implications for the security of shipping routes and the transit of oil through the Suez Canal.

Justice as well as Peace in conflict resolution

RICHARD DICKER, Director of the International Justice Program at Human Rights Watch calls attention to the thorny debate over whether pursuing justice for grave international crimes interfered with peace negotiations in the wake of increasing possibility of trials for abusive national leaders. In an article for the Chatham House magazine, The World Today, "International Criminal Court: Peace & Justice", he states that international law and practice had evolved to a point where both peace and justice had to be equal objectives of negotiations to end conflicts where serious crimes under international law had been committed and that peace agreements did not have to foreclose the possibility of justice at a later date.

Resolving conflict in the Horn of Africa

Dr. ROY LOVE examines the importance of the economic dimensions of the conflicts in the Horn of Africa in both causing conflicts as well as its potential in securing sustainable post-conflict stability. In a Chatham House briefing, "Economic Drivers of Conflict and Cooperation in the Horn of Africa", he states that the establishment of permanent peace can only be built upon a common set of values reflecting equity, tolerance and an acknowledgment of the potential of traditional institutions in entrenching community cohesion and economic drivers necessary for their success could then be harnessed.

Arctic Melt

Charles K Ebinger & Evie Zambetakis, of the Energy Security Initiative at Brookings Institution state that the prospect of longer ice-free periods in the Arctic has momentous implications for the region's commercial development, in itself a further risk to melting Arctic ice. In an article in International Affairs, Chatham House' bi-monthly, "The Geopolitics of Arctic Melt",they argue that Arctic melt does and will continue to pose economic, military and environmental challenges to the governance of the region and explore the role of technological factors as both a barrier and an enabler of access and that working within existing institutions and building capacity is preferable to the proliferation of new institutions, although the full structure and scope of the legal and regulatory frameworks that may be needed are, at present, unclear.