New India’s foreign policy influences

ASHOK MALIK and RORY MEDCALF analyze the impact of three dynamic, non-traditional sources of influence on Indian foreign policy - an ambitious business community, a vocal diaspora and a rambunctious and aggressive news media.

In a Lowy Institute analysis, “India’s New World: Civil Society in the making of foreign policy”, they argue that there has been a greater and unavoidable democratisation of the crafting of India’s diplomacy due to a widening of the institutional sources where the flag followed trade, migrants acted as influence multipliers and ‘tabloid’ television informed middle-class opinion.

They conclude that it was impossible to map the trajectory of Indian diplomacy without parallel engagement and assessment of civil society, the media, trade  imperatives of individual industries, and the interaction of the diaspora and domestic, highly localised politics.

Geo-economics redux

Mark Thirlwell, director at the Lowy Institute avers that the current international environment marked by an increasingly dense entanglement of issues related to international economics, national security and foreign policy lends itself to a return to the idea of geo-economics with key issues around multi-polarity, pax mercatoria, globalisation, state capitalism, resource scarcity, risks arising from the global financial crisis. In a Lowy Institute Perspectives article, "The return to geo-economics: Globalisation and national security", he concludes that this could lead to two potential consequences: an improved quality of analysis with inputs from economics, foreign policy and security while these would be tempered by underlying assumption of zero-sum outcomes.

Armistice in the currency war

STEPHEN GRENVILLE, former deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests a middle path in the ongoing currency hostilities, away from export dependence. In an economic briefing for the Australian Financial Review, "A road map for global 'currency peace'", he states that Asian countries could encourage more foreign direct investment while simultaneously discouraging short-term pro-cyclical foreign capital inflows with foreign exchange reserves used to cope with the volatility of capital flows.

Pushing back.... softly

RORY MEDCALF, director of International Security Program at the Lowy Institute argues that a mix of development, deterrence and diplomacy could help New Delhi maintain an assertive posture without provoking Beijing.  In an opinion piece in The Australian, "Subtlety would help India rival China's clout", he states that New Delhi could pursue an assymetric strategy against Beijing in the maritime, cyber and nuclear realms similar to Beijing's strategy against Washington.

The nuclear hermit

RORY MEDCALF, director of International Security at the Lowy Institute argues that New Delhi's nuclear-weapons posture characterized by a minimum credible nuclear deterrent, no-first use policy could be a model to emulate for other states. In an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal, "India's nuclear example", he calls for closer U.S.-India strategic ties to ensure India's strategic arsenal remained small and the world could not afford to leave New Delhi out of the non-proliferation and nuclear security tent.

Yet another East Asia grouping

Stephen Grenville and Mark Thirlwel, fellows at the Lowy Institute for International Policy advocate the creation of a caucus of the six East Asian members of the G-20; China, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, India and Australia, arguing that doing so would provide an opportunity to pool resources for research and the preparation of policy papers in turn helping the region promote an agenda at the G-20 that would support regional interests and establish G-20's relevance.In a Policy Brief, "A G-20 caucus for East Asia", they conclude that the establishment of an East Asian caucus would offer economies of scale in policy research and development and also contribute positively to the development of a regional economic architecture.

North Asia’s nuclear tangle

Rory Medcalf, Director at the Lowy Institute for International Policy focuses on the complications  in North Asia in the wake of a renewed push by Washington towards nuclear disarmament. In an article “Wicked weapons North Asia’s nuclear tangle”, the author provides the background of the intersecting interests of North Asian powers such as the U.S., China, and Japan and highlights potential trajectories that demand mutual and coordinated concessions of Washington, Beijing, Tokyo.