Indian Ocean dynamics: An Indian perspective

PROBAL GHOSH of the Observer Research Foundation states that the Indian Ocean region with its extensive trade, energy flows, piracy, terrorism and transnational crime has seen increasing struggle for maritime influence from players such as India, China, Australia, Indonesia and South Africa seeking primacy along with the US with new strategic questions being raised due to the number of naval forces acting independently in the region. The Chinese naval deployment in this field not only reinforced its strategic reach and sustenance capability, but also displayed its capacity to act swiftly and flexibly.
In a commentary for the East Asian Forum, "Indian Ocean dynamics: An Indian perspective", he states that while China was making increasing forays into South Asia as part of its string of pearls strategy, India was seeking to neutralise Beijing's influence by courting states in its periphery such as Japan, Korea and Vietnam, enhancing politico-military relations with the states of South East Asia, East Africa and the islands of the Indian Ocean.

He concludes that India would continue to enhance its influence in the Indian Ocean region in strong partnership with Australia, South Africa and Indonesia in tacit partnership with the US.

China's demographic transition

WANG FENG, director at Brookings-Tsinghua center examines China's demographic transition, role of the Chinese state as am accelerator of transition and highlights a few key unique features of China's demographic future based on a few scenarios.
In an article in the Population and Development Review, "The Future of a Demographic Overachiever: Long-Term Implications of the Demographic Transition in China", he puts in perspective China's demographic transition starting from a state of high-mortality and high-fertility to a state of low-mortality coupled with low-fertility in a span of 50 years which is unprecedented in history.
He concludes that China had to be prepared to pay the costs of rapid transition such as a shrinkage of inexpensive labour force that powered China to its position as the world's factory, and a reversal of the one-child policy was unlikely to result in a substantial increase in fertility.

Dhaka's worldview

IFTEKHAR AHMED CHOUDHURY, the former Finance Minister of Bangladesh states that Dhaka's two major foreign policy aspirations of preservation of sovereignty and quest for resources combined with the fact that was surrounded on three sides by India informed its external behavior of  being a player in world politics with a web of extra-regional linkages.

In his article for the Institute of South Asian Studies, "Foundations of Bangladesh’s Foreign Policy Interactions", he states that Dhaka's international interactions were based on twelve pillars comprised of the states such as Western aid donors, South Asian states, Middle Eastern Muslim states, China, multilateral institutions such as the UN, Commonwealth, OIC, SAARC, and trade and financial institutions such as the WTO, Bretton Woods organizations, ADB and the Islamic Development Bank.

He concludes that there was a greater commitment to multilateralism and Dhaka generally kept a lower profile on high-risk issues and higher profile on low-risk issues.

China's Spent Nuclear Fuel Management

YUN ZHOU of the Belfer Center's Project on Managing the Atom and International Security Program reviews China's current nuclear fuel cycle program, spent fuel management and reprocessing policy to forecast the spent fuel and associated storage requirements until 2035 when the first commercialized Chinese fast neutron reactor is expected to be operational.

In a working paper for the Centre for International and Security Studies, "China's Spent Nuclear Fuel Management", she explores China’s long-term options for managing the back-end of its nuclear fuel cycle by examining China’s spent fuel storage capability, uranium resources, fast reactor R&D capability, and the cost and proliferation risks of each option.

The study concludes that China can and should maintain a reprocessing operation to meet its R&D activities before its fast reactor program is further developed and that China could benefit from a decision-making framework that allows for more flexibility and greater variability in order to account for the long timescales inherent in nuclear development.

Renewing Asia's Collective Destiny

SOURABH GUPTA argues that despite past missteps and future hurdles, India's and Indonesia's parallel histories, similar policy preferences and opportune international circumstances were drawing both countries closer to revitalize bilateral relations and potentially reconfigure Asian geopolitics. 

In his Asia-Pacific bulletin for the East-West Center, "India and Indonesia: Renewing Asia's Collective Destiny", he states that both countries could leverage opportunities to revitalize the bilateral relationship; New Delhi and Jakarta could start by championing each other's entry into the BRICS and MALSINDO collectives and this could help both countries set the tone on how leadership could be collaboratively exercised in the Indian Ocean region.

He concludes that a bilateral road map interspersed in equal parts with ambition and pragmatism, and cognizant of their differences in security perspective, held the potential to unlock the immense promise of this natural partnership.

Springbok-elephant tango in the African jungle

ELIZABETH SIDIROPAULOS, director of the South African Institute of International Affairs explores the overlap of interests in Africa between India and South Africa and assesses whether they could be natural partners for development in Africa as it often appeared on first glance.

She argues in her Chatham House briefing paper, "India and South Africa as Partners for Development in Africa?" that New Delhi and Pretoria were both potential partners and competitors where Pretoria recognized components of India's Africa engagement such as human capital, info-comm, and agriculture in a positive light while its own articulation of its national interest was being reassessed and they also displayed substantial differences in their approach to development.

She concludes that there was scope for deepening the substance of political and economic relations between the two which had been hampered by capacity constraints on both sides and differing priorities and that in the short-term, development cooperation between the two in Africa was not a priority for either but using the private sector in this field could be a potential model.

Follow the money... connect the dots!!

MATTHEW LEVITT of the The Washington Institute's Stein program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence states that while traditional efforts to combat terror financing focused on "seizing and freezing" terrorist assets, terrorist tactics were continuing to evolve and financial intelligence would continue to be an integral component of international efforts to confront transnational threats.
In an article for the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, "Follow the Money: Leveraging Financial Intelligence to Combat Transnational Threats", he states that financial intelligence and analytics could track financial footprints up and down the financial pipelines providing critical intelligence to constrain terrorists’ operating environment, deter donors, interdict potential threats, and identify illicit conduct.
He lauds the recent renewal of the SWIFT agreement as an important step in maintaining one of the international community's most effective financial intelligence tools.

Globalization-enabled corruption

ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN of the Peterson Institute and DEVESH KAPUR of the University of Pennyslvania state that the skyrocketing corruption in India and the consequent money-laundering indicated the usage of discreet foreign jurisdictions as destinations for black money and India’s financial integration had facilitated these transfers.

In a Business Standard op-ed, "India: Fighting Imported Corruption", they also state that macroeconomic analysis showed that the laundered money came back to India as the much sought-after 'foreign' investment with additional implicit subsidies such as secrecy and avoided taxes, with the monies round-tripping back through the banking channel from countries such as Mauritius and Cyprus with lower financial transparency and low tax rates.

They call upon New Delhi to take the lead internationally in pressing for data-sharing between governments and global financial institutions on overseas assets of citizens, trade flows and remittances, and recommend an abolition of double-taxation avoidance agreements with states such as Mauritius who were not members of the Financial Agenda Tax Force.

Growth of the metros

ALAN BERUBE and PHILIPP RODE examine economic and employment data in 150 of the world’s largest metropolitan economies located in 53 countries for their analysis "Global MetroMonitor: The Path to Economic Recovery". The Brookings Institution analysis shows that these metropolitan areas function as locations for high-value economic activity in their respective nations and world regions, accounting for 46% of world GDP with only 12% of the population.
They state that the the past two decades had seen a shift in the metro map with the emerging market metros closing their gap with higher-income metros due to increased mobility of capital, market reforms and offshoring, with this shift accelerated by the global financial crisis of 2007-09. They forecast a rise in demand from emerging middle-classes for consumer goods and services, improved public services such as infrastructure, environmental quality, and educational opportunities this could provide further opportunities for both low-income and high-income metropolitan economies.

Nuclear energy in a box!!

Heritage Foundation nuclear policy experts, JACK SPENCER and NICHOLAS LORIS tout the potential of small, modular nuclear reactors (SMR) in the generation of abundant emissions-free power. They argue in their opinion piece, "Small Nuclear Reactors, Big Energy Pay-Offs", that this nascent technology could significantly transform the nuclear industry due to its numerous advantages such as lower up-front capital costs, mobility, scalability and multi-functionality. They state that the current U.S. regulatory environment was dominated by inefficient licensing and rule-making, failed nuclear waste management policy leading to barriers to new nuclear technologies and call for a market-based approach that provided a stable regulatory environment, promoted competition, relied on private investment and sustainable economics.

Analyzing China Inc's M&A trends and future scenarios

DEREK SCISSORS of the Heritage Foundation analyzes China Inc.'s  global investments since 2005 across countries, sectors and investors quantifying it at $224 bn in successful investments and $140 bn in unsuccessful investments. In his analysis, "China Global Investment Tracker: 2011", Australia, U.S., Brazil, Canada and Iran, were the most popular destinations and energy, metals and finance accounted for over 80% of all investments. CNPC, Sinopec, CIC, Chalco and CNOOC were the top firms investing $120 bn or over 50% of Chinese cross-border mergers and acquisitions. 

CHARLES WOLF of the Hoover Institution states that China's appetite for acquisitions of foreign companies could quadruple from current levels of 6.6% share of global cross-border M & A by 2020 on the back of its growing trade surplus, diversification away from US debt and its appetite for natural resources, emerging technologies, and financial know-how.

In his Wall Street journal op-ed, "China's Next Buying Spree: Foreign Companies", he states that this would make China a more active and influential player in global mergers and acquisitions markets enhancing its integration into the world economy and could also lead to an improvement in China's domestic corporate governance practices. He states that there could also be a rise in tensions both within host countries and China on differential barriers to cross-border investments.

Asian geopolitics - in charts

WALTER LOHMAN, JOHN FLEMING and NICHOLAS HAMIESEVICZ of the Asian Studies Center of the Heritage Foundation state that the global financial crisis had impacted perceptions of American power and its relationships in Asia while these perceptions were not grounded on fact. In their report, "Key Asian Indicators: A Book of Charts", they provide a visual representation of factoids across the spectrum of economics, politics and defence to support their argument of American predominance across all areas in Asia and an absence of American power could lead to a decline of peace and prosperity in Asia.

Online networks as a trigger for regime change

MARKO PRPIC and SEAN NOONAN examine the benefits and vulnerabilities of using social media tools to organize protests and revolutions using examples of various protests organized over the recent past that achieved varying degrees of success and failure.

In a Stratfor analysis, "Social Media as a Tool for Protest", they state that while social media undoubtedly offered advantages in disseminating messages quickly and broadly, a revolution required much more including organization, funding, mass appeal well beyond the internet-savvy youth and an ability to inspire and motivate individuals to get away from the comfort of their homes and face off against the government on the streets.

They caution that an over-reliance on social-media tools was no substitute to effective real-world leadership and ingenuity to tackle government counter-protest tactics while they could also be detrimental to the evolution of the leadership beyond cyberspace and potential isolation from alternate political movements with whome they may have shared goals.

EU's Strategic Partnerships

ANNE SCHMIDT of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs) reviews the debate on 'strategic partnerships' within the EU in the wake of the guiding principles drawn up for the strategic partnership format. In a working paper for SWP, "Strategic Partnerships – a contested policy concept", she reviews recent publications within the EU to recommends that the EU itself had to develop into a strategic actor and achieve  the stated goal of effective multilateralism as well as reconciling the EU’s broad normative concerns with its narrower interests.

Centralized vs Distributed Water Management

NIRVIKAR SINGH of University of California, Santa Cruz states that rapid economic growth, low per capita availability of water and underdeveloped physical and institutional infrastructure could lead to a potential 50% water supply shortfall in India making it one of the most severely affected countries as reported in the McKinsey-Water Resources Group study on the economic aspects of water supply.

In an East Asia forum commentary, "India’s water management challenge", he advocates an approach that focused on improving water usage efficiency in agriculture which accounted for 80% of India's water utilization and a shift away from large-scale infrastructure projects, municipal dams and river interlinking towards local water management practices to promote greater efficiency of water use while state governments could focus on promoting innovation in agricultural practices and productivity.

He states that although the National Water Mission offered a comprehensive approach including conservation, efficiency and government co-ordination, there were vital shortcomings related to lack of an economics-based prioritization, adequate co-ordination vertically down to the local level and horizontally across government departments and calls for an inclusion of local water-management bodies to fill the current gaps.

Raising the game in Lagos

PARVATHI VASUDEVAN of the Centre for International, Strategic and Development Studies in India traces the evolution of Indo-Nigerian ties over the past 50 years from a foundation of historical & political links to one based on economic links. While India's major oil players evinced a keen interest in Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, which contributes 20% of India's oil imports, their moves had not yielded the expected benefits. In a report for the Chatham House, "The Changing Nature of Nigeria–India Relations", she calls for a rehaul of New Delhi's Africa policy with Nigeria as a template, with the key focus areas as follows:

• Enhanced commercial transparency and adherence to international legal best practices
• Increasing frequency of government-government contacts and expansion of India's diplomatic presence
• Expansion of India's Trade and Economic relations committee's mandate beyond hydrocarbons into all sectors
• Enhanced Indian media presence on the ground in Africa
• Expansion of the educational scholarships program to support Nigerian students

She concludes that New Delhi had to raise its game to compete both effectively and transparently in Africa's economy.

Securing the Indo-Pacific region

Michael Auslin, AEI's director of Japan Studies states that the Indo-Pacific's unique geography makes the balance of regional security most vulnerable in its "commons": the open seas, air lanes, and cyber networks that link the region together and to the world and the US and its partners goals would be to ensure access, contain conflicts, deter threats and evolve liberal norms in the commons. In an op-ed for the AEI, "Security in the Indo-Pacific Commons", he states that the regional politico-military strategy should have a muscular US forward military component augmented by a close security partnership among nations that shared common concerns and promotion of a liberal agenda in the region.

On "Cyber"War

PAUL CORNISH, DAVID LIVINGSTONE, DAVE CLEMENTE and CLAIRE YORKE of the Chatham House assess the evolving challenges in cyberspace and describe it as terra nullius, beyond the reach of mature political discourse providing actors opportunities to achieve strategic objectives without armed conflict, conferring disproportionate power, anonymity, a blurring of military-civilian boundaries and that cyberspace could be considered a fifth battlespace after land, water, air and space. In a Chatham House report, "On Cyber warfare", they argue that cyber warfare should be constrained and validated by politics, ethics, norms and values, to resolve its challenges while extending its complexities back into the world of politics would question deeply embedded assumptions about the primacy of the state, the authority of government and the role of government agencies and the armed forces as providers of national security.

GAP - Index to assess preparedness on global aging

RICHARD JACKSON, NEIL HOWE, KEISUKE NAKASHIMA, fellows at the Global Aging Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) state that the global economic crisis has left many elders vulnerable while reducing the room for governments to accommodate rising old-age dependency costs. In a CSIS analysis, "The Global Aging Preparedness Index", they analyze the progress that twenty countries worldwide are making in preparing for global aging, and particularly the old-age dependency dimension of the challenge and state that extending work lives and increasing funded retirement savings represented the easiest solutions to implement that balanced the needs of the elderly and the younger workforce.

Channeling foreign capital inflows

ESWAR PRASAD, fellow at Brookings Institution and Professor of Trade Policy at Cornell University analyzes India’s record current account deficit and asserts that policymakers must look for more ways to channel capital inflows into productive investments, which would help the country attain the potential benefits of foreign capital with less exposure to the risks of volatile short-term flow. In an op-ed for the Wall Street journal, "How India Can Cope With Plenty", he recommends multiple measures that policymakers could implement such as: opening up FDI to various sectors, reforming corporate bond markets, tackling corruption and red-tape, reining in government expenditure, and switching from inefficient subsidies to direct cash transfers, arguing that the current period of high growth and large capital inflows could be the best ever opportunity for India to implement those reforms.

Dealing with Chinese mercantilism

ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN of the Peterson Institute draws lessons from history of Chinese mercantilism of the early 1800s to state that dealing with Beijing effectively required a greater sensitivity to its history that meant greater use of carrots rather than sticks and a multilateral rules-based approach rather than a unilateral approach related to specific outcomes. In an op-ed in Business Standard, "Chinese Mercantilism: The Long View", he calls for a long view on China that relied on nudging Beijing away from the path of mercantilism rather than a confrontational approach in spite of a range of unhelpful Chinese actions across a gamut of political and economic issues, stating that a dominant China may no longer be amenable to force

Countering Jihad

THOMAS HEGGHAMMER, of Oslo's Norwegian Defence Research Establishment analyzes the phenomenon of the Muslim foreign fighter to explain what drove Muslims to fight in transnational wars for each other, mostly after 1980 and posits that the phenomenon was a violent offshoot of the pan-Islamist identity movement that arose in 1970s through a process of elite competition. In an article for International Security, "The Rise of Muslim Foreign Fighters: Islam and the Globalization of Jihad", he states that the transnational Muslim fighter and the al-Qaeda operative were different in their political preferences although they hailed from the same pan-Islamist ideology, with the Muslim fighter having a stronger popular support base, and concludes that undermining pan-Islamism and promotion of state nationalism or other local forms of identification were key to an effective counter-strategy.

Stand up and be counted

In the wake of India's election to the chair of the UN Counter-Terrorism Committee and the impending elevation to the rotating Presidency in August the exceptional composition of the current UN Security Council, SHASHI THAROOR states that New Delhi had to significantly raise its game and take positions on matters that it had previously preferred to duck such as Sudan, Iran, Middle-East and North Korea. In an op-ed commentary for the Project Syndicate, "India at the UN High Table", he states that New Delhi had to augment its resources and expertise on diverse issues and New Delhi had an extraordinary opportunity to showcase its credentials as a major global player and aspirant to a permanent seat at the table.

China's long march to nuclear leadership

Scholars at the Institute of Energy Research analyze the expansion of Chinese nuclear power to state that minimal red tape, cheap financing, low-cost labor and access to western technology are helping propel China's push into the global nuclear marketplace. In an IER article, "China’s Nuclear Program: Fast and Relatively Inexpensive", they state that recent advances such as self-sufficiency in reactor design and mastery over new reprocessing technologies such as irradiating spent fuel could provide Beijing an edge in its quest of becoming a world leader in nuclear power.

Tibetan natural resources

ROGER HOWARD states that relations between Beijing and Lhasa would be defined by the region's natural resources and 'development' of the region would either strengthen or dissolve these political ties in the backdrop of ambitious Chinese plans to make Tibet an important 'strategic resources reserve base'. In an article for the Chatham House publication, The World Today, "Tibet's Natural Resources: Tension Over Treasure", he states that the extraction of Tibet's resources could not only shape the political relationship between Tibet and China but also have global repercussions giving China political leverage over countries importing those resources.

Geo-economics redux

Mark Thirlwell, director at the Lowy Institute avers that the current international environment marked by an increasingly dense entanglement of issues related to international economics, national security and foreign policy lends itself to a return to the idea of geo-economics with key issues around multi-polarity, pax mercatoria, globalisation, state capitalism, resource scarcity, risks arising from the global financial crisis. In a Lowy Institute Perspectives article, "The return to geo-economics: Globalisation and national security", he concludes that this could lead to two potential consequences: an improved quality of analysis with inputs from economics, foreign policy and security while these would be tempered by underlying assumption of zero-sum outcomes.

Analysis of online jihadism

MOHAMMED ALI MUSAWI of the Quilliam Foundation states that counter-extremism initiatives needed to make a clear distinction between attempting to de-radicalise existing extremists and preventing new generations from adopting such ideologies in the first place and calls for greater efforts to challenge the ideology, rhetoric and worldview of pro-Jihadists forums in both the ‘cyber’ and the ‘real’ worlds, with special focus on countering wahhabism, publicizing refutation of jihadism by reputed Islamic scholars as well as former jihadists.

In a Quilliam Foundation report, "Cheering for Osama: How Jihadis Use Discussion Forums",based on an he provides fresh insights into the workings of Arabic-language pro-jihadist web forums, shedding new light on the ideologies, recruitment strategies and social dynamics of these forums and illuminating the role that these forums play in distributing and popularising Jihadist texts, videos and statements.

Dìyuán zhèngzhì

FRANCOIS GODEMENT, director at Asia Centre, Sciences Po, analyzes content in Chinese language publications in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan to state that Beijing's defensive and cautious approach based on conflict avoidance was a temporary strategy intended to be applied while it rose and it would run its writ unconstrained once its ascent was complete. In a China Analysis article for the European Council for Foreign Relations, "Geopolitics on Chinese terms", he states that the concept of Beijing as a responsive stakeholder was getting outdated since it was not interested in norm-setting beyond the principle of non-interference and that the Chinese strategic community itself was in a state of flux with its focus to partnership driven more as a tactic to prevent its own strategic encirclement.

Dancing with elephants

ABDULLAH AL SHAYJI of Kuwait University calls for concerted efforts by both the GCC and India to expand strategic cooperation beyond energy, trade and expatriate workers. In an article for Gulf News, "Learning to dance with India", he states that India had a future role in Gulf security while contentious issues such as the GCC-India FTA and rights for expatriate workers needed to be addressed by both India and the GCC.

Enhancing privatization in agriculture

RAJIV KUMAR, chief executive of the Indian Council for Research on International Economics Relations (ICRIER) states that a reduction in the Government footprint in the agriculture sector was a necessary condition to enhance private investment into Indian agriculture. In a commentary for the East Asia Forum, "Indian agriculture: how to encourage private investment", he states that the government's pervasive presence ranging from control of trade and the land market, regulation of price, monopoly over R&D, and veto on new varieties had not just increased uncertainty for private players but also created huge entry-barriers to private players. In the backdrop of the creation of a sub-group on 'Enhancing agriculture production and food security' under the Prime Minister's Council on Trade and Industry, he calls for the team to take a holistic approach including focus on the barriers to private investment rather than just detailing areas to promote private investment.

Armistice in the currency war

STEPHEN GRENVILLE, former deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests a middle path in the ongoing currency hostilities, away from export dependence. In an economic briefing for the Australian Financial Review, "A road map for global 'currency peace'", he states that Asian countries could encourage more foreign direct investment while simultaneously discouraging short-term pro-cyclical foreign capital inflows with foreign exchange reserves used to cope with the volatility of capital flows.

Capital flood

ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN of the Peterson Institute argues against opening up the floodgates to the capital sloshing across the world in an environment of mercantilistic policies across the world with countries across the world doing their best to repel capital. In an op-ed in Business Standard, "Reserve Bank of India's Fateful, Fatal Action", he argues that improving governance and regulatory reform rather than access to foreign capital was the need and that the RBI may be trading away a bird in hand (the tradable sector) for the bird in the bush (infrastructure).

Analyzing Pakistan

Experts led by STEPHEN COHEN of the Brookings Institution present a grim but realistic picture of Pakistan which was failing along multiple dimensions with a rapidly deteriorating law and order situation, while analyzing potential future scenarios. In a series of analyses presented in Bellagio, Italy, "Pakistan's Future: The Bellagio Papers", they question the will of the Pakistani elite to make structural and ideological changes that would allow it to become a state at peace with itself and its neighbors while discounting the capability of outside powers such as the U.S. to transform Pakistan.

Disputed hydrocarbons

GUO RONGXING of the Regional Science Association of China at the Peking University analyzes critical issues relating to the management of exploitation of

seabed hydrocarbons in the disputed regions of the East China Sea. In an analysis for the Brookings Institution, "Territorial Disputes and Seabed Petroleum Exploitation: Some Options for the East China Sea", he examines the factors that have limited collaboration between China and Japan in exploring and extracting the resources and outlines potential principles to enhance Sino-Japanese interaction.

Sick man on the Nile

DAVID SCHENKER, director at the Washington Institute's Program on Arab Politics traces the decline of Cairo's regional stature stating that Egyptian dominance of the Middle East and the Nile basin in Africa was increasingly being questioned while Egypt was increasingly turning inward. In an opinion piece in The Weekly Standard, "Sick Man on the Nile", he cautions that a weakening Egypt would further complicate U.S. regional security architecture in the Middle East in the wake of  reorientation in Ankara and Beirut away from the West and a strengthened Iran-Syria axis and recommends initiatives to reverse a weakening of Egyptian power in the region.

Smart urbanization

NICK PENNELL of Booz & Company recommends greater focus on urban sustainability to make a concerted effort on reducing CO2 emissions by 50% over the next 30 years through investments of $30T in energy efficient housing, construction, transportation and logistics systems, transforming cities into hotbeds of ecological innovation and improving energy security. In a study conducted jointly with the World Worldlife Fund, "Reinventing the City: Three Prerequisites for Greening Urban infrastructures", they recommend a mix of urban planning to make the right sustainable choices, innovative financing and technology to achieve global climate change goals.

Pushing back.... softly

RORY MEDCALF, director of International Security Program at the Lowy Institute argues that a mix of development, deterrence and diplomacy could help New Delhi maintain an assertive posture without provoking Beijing.  In an opinion piece in The Australian, "Subtlety would help India rival China's clout", he states that New Delhi could pursue an assymetric strategy against Beijing in the maritime, cyber and nuclear realms similar to Beijing's strategy against Washington.

Gas in the Horn of Africa

GREGORY R COPLEY, founder-President of the International Strategic Studies Association states that the recent discovery of natural gas around Ethiopia had the potential to alter the geopolitics of the region around the Red Sea/Horn of Africa with consequences for the sea lines of communication. In an ISN Security Watch article, "In the Red Sea region, the Age of Gas Begins in Earnest", he declares that the recent spate of discoveries of natural gas in the Horn as well as broadly around the world could transform the global energy markets, shifting to a "Gas Age" with influx of new energy wealth for the Horn of Africa that could also lead to a glut in supply within a decade with consequent collapse in the price of gas and petroleum.

India's history-geopolitics linkage

ROBERT KAPLAN of the Center for a New American Security analyzes the millenial history of India contrasting it with that of China and states that India would emerge as the key Eurasian pivot state because of its effect on relations between the United States and China. In a CNAS report "South Asia's Geography of Conflict", he provides an analysis of New Delhi's worldview  based on the geopolitics and geographical history of South Asia cautioning that the Washington-New Delhi relationship should not fall victim to the proclivity of U.S. to poor understanding of local histories.

Public private partnership to enhance rural energy access

Balachandra Patil, fellow with the Energy Technology Innovation Policy program at the Belfer Center at Harvard Kennedy School of Government states that 45% of 800 million rural population in India did not have access to electricity highlighting the failure of policies, governance and institutions around delivery of energy to rural India including inefficient targeting of subsidies. He links India's strong entrepreneurial culture, its capabilities in advanced biomass technologies and the global carbon market to propose an alternative framework to improve access to energy for rural India. In a Discussion Paper for the Belfer Center, "Modern Energy Access to All in Rural India: An Integrated Implementation Strategy", the public-private partnership model he proposes entails the creation of rural energy access authorities empowered to enable regulatory policies, deliver rural technologies and provide access of financing, while targeting entrepreneurs rather than the rural households as the end-user, with energy service companies linking rural energy projects to the global market by serving as an aggregator of carbon credits for global trade. 

Anarchy in Pakistan

AHMED RASHID, Pakistani journalist and author of "Descent into Chaos: The U.S. and the Disaster in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia" states that Pakistan's selective approach to countering extremism and its military's preoccupation with India had to end before it could defeat the jihadi menace. In an opinion piece for the The National Interest, "The Anarchic Republic of Pakistan", he states that groundwork was being laid for a genuine democratic dispensation inspite of the incompetence of the Government and that if modernization of juduciary and police services were coupled with policies to enhance economic stability, Pakistan had a brighter future than being currently portrayed.

Raising India's Lusophone profile

CONSTANTINO XAVIER, fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses states that in the wake of Goa's successful bid to launch the 3rd Lusophony Games in 2013, India had to recognize the Anglophone bias in its foreign policy and consider upgrading India's diplomatic engagement with the Portugese-speaking Lusophone world comprising of eight countries with growing economic and strategic influence. In a brief for IDSA Comment, "Portuguese-speaking countries: a new niche for Indian foreign policy?", he calls for India to diversify its foreign policy by expanding its profile within the Lusophone world, upgrade its relationship with the Community of Portugese Language Countries (CPLP) to that of associate observer status, host a regular Goa-based India-CPLP dialogue, and further build Goa as a  venue for training programs conducted in Portugese for Lusophone countries.

Scenarios for The Seven Sisters

NAMRATA GOSWAMI of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, analyzes the key factors determining the future of India's insurgency-ridden NorthEast to determine four possible future scenarios: 1) a tourism-anchored "Destination Northeast", 2) an insular "Island Northeast" based on xenophobia and violence, 3) a democratic "Multi-cultural Northeast" and 4) Global Northeast (on the back of a successful Look East policy). In an IDSA Occasional Paper, "India's NorthEast 2020: Four Alternative Futures", she recommends a policy focus based on developing human capital, fostering inter-state competition and rewarding progress to ensure the development of an open, multi-cultural, globalized and democratic North-east.

Sino-Pak nuclear collaboration

ASHLEY TELLIS of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace recommends that Washington should lead forcefully in urging China to rethink its plans to sell civilian nuclear reactors to Pakistan claiming that Beijing had a lot at stake if it chose to renege on its NSG obligations. In an opinion piece for the Wall Street, "Stop the Sino-Pak Nuclear Pact", he states that China's plans had raised alarms in foreign capitals given Pakistan's fragile leadership, and an implicit threat to withhold the forms of cooperation that China desire would convince Beijing to reconsider its decision.

South Asian Security and economics

MICHAEL O' HANLON of Brookings proposes a policy of complementing the hard power aspects of US policy in South Asia with a big push in soft power, particularly within the arena of economics. In an opinion piece for Politico, "Economics of Security in South Asia", he outlines a four-point economics and security initiative plan with tripling of annual economic aid to Pakistan, free-trade for Pakistan's tribal areas, encouragement of Indo-Pak trade and fuel pipelines from Central to South Asia through Afghanistan as the four key components.

Pushback in the South China Sea

YURIKO KOIKE, the former national security advisor of Japan speculates that the recent trip to Asia of the US Secretary of State had the potential of triggering a diplomatic revolution a la the 1971 Kissinger visit to Mao's China with the US unwilling to accept China's push for regional hegemony in the hydrocarbon-rich waters of the South China Sea. In an opinion piece in the Taipei Times, "US takes a stand against a shifting geopolitical landscape", she states that the US not only reaffirmed its commitment to security in Asia and the eastern Pacific but also exposed the dichotomy in China's policies of hegemonic behavior versus its mantra of 'peaceful rise' and gave pause to Chinese leadership that their country's overall international role was being tested primarily in Asia.

The land-inflation linkage

ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN, fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics reviews the high inflation figures for India and conjectures that the combination of serious microeconomic distortions afflicting the land market coupled with macroeconomic factors such as surging capital inflows into real estate and housing could be raising cost of production in the Indian economy as a whole, pushing up cost-push inflation and making the goal of double-digit growth elusive. In an op-ed in The Business Standard, "India's Inflation Puzzle", he states that inflation in India could be far more dependent on services and land as an input and India would need to address microeconomic distortions through structural reforms of the land market and address macroeconomic aggravators of inflation through dampening of foreign capital flows into real estate and housing and higher provisioning for real-estate lending.

Nation States - RIP

PARAG KHANNA, Director of Global Governance Initiative at the New America Foundation heralds the beginning of the urban age predicting that globalization would result in the emergence of global hub cities attracting talent and capital, and 3rd world megacities that would together drive governance, economics, innovation and diplomacy, pulling away from their home states while simultaneously competing for global influence among themselves and alongside states. In a commentary for Foreign Policy, "Beyond City Limits", he states that cities and the urban economies, like the Hanseatic league of yore, would serve as the centers of gravity for nations, being at the core of issues such as security, governance, climate change, inequality and poverty while making national borders and international organizations such as the UN irrelevant.

The Pecking Order within the Islamic world

JOSEPH LUMBARD and AREF ALI NAYED compile the list of the 500 most influential people in the Islamic world alongwith a brief history of Islam and its canon, and summarize the key Islamic doctrines and schools of thought and their relative influence within the ummah. In a report "The 500 Most Influential Muslims - 2010", the second in successive years published by the Amman-based Royal Islamic Strategic Studies Center, the king of Saudi Arabia, Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz al Saud continues to be the most influential Muslim in the world.
More than 25 of the top 50 influential Muslims are from the Middle East due to its special status as the heart of the Ummah with the holy sites, clergy, royalty and Islamic scholarship with leadership from Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Turkey alongwith its Cypriot area also lays claim to the top status with PM Recep Erdogan vaulting to #2 this year from #5 in 2009, possibly as a result of the recent change in strategy towards Israel. Surprisingly, Iran and Iraq are home to a total of only 3 top influencers with Ali Khamenei dropping to #3 from #2 in 2009.
In the sub-continent, India continues to have 3 individuals in the top 50 with Akhtar Raza Khan, the Grand Mufti of India at #26, Mahmood Madani of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind at #40 and Burhanuddin Saheb at #47. Abd al Wahhab, the Amir of Tablighi Jamaat (#16) and Taqi Usmani (#31) are the two Pakistanis making the top 50 cut this year while disgraced scientist AQ Khan has exited the top 50 this year while continuing to remain in the top 500 under the Science and Technology category. President Yudhoyono of the largest Islamic democracy, Indonesia makes a strong showing to finish at #9 in 2010. Hasan Nasrallah (#18) of the Hezbollah and Khaled Meshal (#38) retain significant influence while the Secretary-General of the OIC, Dr. Ihsanoglu has dropped down 4 places from #40 to #44.
Sheikha Munira Qubeysi of Syria, the leader of the largest women-only Islamic movement at #24 and Queen Rania of Jordan at #30 are the only two females in the top 50.

Nuclear black market

ROLF MOWATT-LARSEN and WILLIAM H TOBEY, fellows at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs analyze the pattern of seizures of nuclear material in the past seven years to state that elimination of the global nuclear black market been given its due because of a lack of international co-operation, organizational failures and skepticism among experts of the plausibility of nuclear terrorism. In an opinion piece for the Belfer Center, "The Armageddon Test: To Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, Follow the Uranium", they call for greater urgency and an international consensus on the nuclear threat, deeper co-operation among national intelligence and law enforcement agencies alongwith more teeth to the IAEA to eliminate the nuclear black market.

Growing private Indian philanthropy

ARPAN SHETH of Bain & Company analyzes the state of Indian philanthropy in comparison with other countres arguing that there existed potential for greater philanthropy among wealthier Indians whose relatively recent wealth accumulation, blurring between personal and corporate donations and underdeveloped donation support networks led to lower individual philanthropy. In a lecture "An Overview of Philanthropy in India", at the Indian Philanthropy Forum, he recommends modifications to the legal and taxation framework that hindered growth and operation of non-profits in India and calls upon non-profits to increase transparency, professionalism and effectiveness.

Beijing - Central Asia Express ...delayed

RICHARD WEITZ of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute analyzes the attractiveness of the Central Asian countries as sources of raw material, export markets, investment opportunities and conduits for trade for China stating that China could reap significant benefits although this would require significant investments to upgrade the region's railroad transportation infrastructure. In a China Brief article for Jamestown Foundation, "Afghanistan in China's Emerging Eurasian Transport Corridor", he concludes that various barriers such as suboptimal legal, policy and communications framework, and transnational threats such as narco-terrorism combined with obstacles around ownership, and financing in Central Asia to limit the effectiveness of a potential Eurasian rail network as an alternative for China to containerized cargo shipping by sea through the Indian Ocean.

Cyber Power

JOSEPH NYE of the Harvard University avers that the low price of entry, anonymity and asymmetries in vulnerability meant that smaller actors had greater capacity to exercise hard and soft power in a highly volatile environment such as cyberspace than in more traditional domains of world politics and could create power shifts among states such that small states could leverage asymmetrical warfare to leapfrog larger adversaries. In an essay for the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, "Cyber Power", he concludes that cyber-power was unlikely to be a game-changer and that while governments would continue to be the strongest actors, the cyber-domain would increase the diffusion of power to non-state actors illustrating the importance of networks as a key dimension of power in the 21st century.

Chinese soft power

JOSEPH NYE of the Harvard University and WANG JISI of the Peking University School of International Studies state that increasing references to soft power by Chinese leaders and academics reflected a sophisticated realist strategy to complement its rising hard power. In an article for the Harvard International Review,"Hard Decisions on Soft Power:Opportunities and Difficulties for Chinese Soft Power", they conclude that soft power was not a zero-sum game in the context of Sino-US relations and that if both became more attractive in each others’ eyes, the prospects of damaging conflicts would reduce significantly.

Future role of the WTO

URI DADUSH of the Carnegie Endowment states that the efficacy of the WTO has been reduced due to increasing difficulty in enacting comprehensive multilateral agreements driven by deepening international integration, increasing influence of new players, and growing trade complexity. In an article for the International Economic Bulletin, "The Future of the World Trading System", he states that despite the recent stalling of the WTO, world trade had advanced at unprecedented rates and that the WTO could reaffirm its leadership role by promoting regional and plurilateral liberalization processes to existing agreements.

Joining the game in the Indian Ocean

HARSH PANT of King's College reviews the growing Sino-Lankan relationship stating that China was rapidly expanding its profile in Sri Lanka with multiple infrastructure investments with ominous portents for New Delhi. In a commentary for ISN Security Watch, "The New Battle for Sri Lanka", he states that New Delhi had to be more proactive to keep ahead in the great game unfolding in the Indian Ocean.

Backing Soft power with hard power

JOHN LEE of the Australia's Centre for Independent Studies analyzes India's soft power and argues that India's soft power potential was based not just on its culture and values but also on the alignment of those values to regional and global standards. In a Foreign Policy Analysis article, "Unrealised potential: India's 'soft power' ambition in Asia", he cautions that India's potential suffered from lingering uncertainty since its soft power was not perceived as being adequately backed by 'hard power' and that could improve only if it undertook reforms.

National Security - The link to natural resources

CHRISTINE PARTHEMORE and WILL ROGERS at the Center for a New American Security call for increased focus within the national security community on the role and strategic consequences of the availability and depletion of resources such as water, forests, cropland, fish stocks and biodiversity. In a CNAS report, Sustaining Security: How Natural Resources Influence National Security, they propose two approaches: a targeted approach based on resource conservation in a few regions such as Afghanistan and Pakistan and a more long-term multidisciplinary approach based on incorporation of resources into national security strategy.

Look East Policy analyzed

SANDY GORDON of the Center of Excellence in Policing and Security at the Australian National University analyzes the evolution of Indo-ASEAN relationship from its tentative beginnings under India's 'Look East' policy to that of its current strategic partnership in the Indian Ocean, stating that this would be one of many partnerships that India would develop with other powers. In a workshop paper presented for the Australia India Institute, "India ‘Looks East’ as history", he states that India would do well to put in place labour and infrastructure policies to leverage its demographic dividend and as India developed, a strategic triangle between China, US and India was a distinct possibility

The Shale Hype

CLAUDIO GULER of ISN Security Watch states that recent advances in technology and elevated secular price for natural gas had made drilling of shale gas economical and this had in turn raised expectations of energy independence, improved security and reduced emissions among consumer countries while traditional gas producers such as Russia were impacted by reduced global gas demand as well as greater availability of unconventional gas such as LNG and shale gas. In a commentary for ISN Security Watch, "Shale Gas: Eureka or False Dawn?", he cautions that optimistic estimates of shale gas reserves were tentative outside the US and that shale gas was far from being a panacea for energy, environment and security.

Pax Americana along the South China Sea

ROBERT KAPLAN, fellow at the Center for a New American Security states that the China's advantageous hub-like geography abutting Central Asia, South-East Asia and East Asia has been mostly overlooked in any analysis of Chinese economic dynamism or strategic assertiveness and although its seaboard was as extensive as its continental interior, it faced a far tougher proposition at sea. In an op-ed in The New York Times, "The Geography of Chinese Power", he opines that a Chinese absorption of Taiwan would be considered a failure of U.S. power by the states in the Pacific and a strengthened U.S. air and sea presence in Oceania presented a compromise between resisting a Greater China at all costs and assenting to a future in which the Chinese Navy policed the first island chain.

Revolution in higher education

BEN WILDAVSKY, fellow at the Ewing Marion Kauffman foundation states that globalization of universities had resulted in a shake-up of the old order in higher education with wide-ranging benefits for all including increased mobility and availability of human capital, scientific talent and greater free trade in minds and ideas. In a discussion organized by the Carnegie Council on his book, "The Great Brain Race: How Global Universities Are Reshaping the World", he points out that mobility of students, cross-national scientific research and branch campuses had increased significantly in the past decade. He opines that a lot of countries now saw a thriving university system as their pathway to innovation and growth and this had resulted in increasing academic investments, partnerships and quality improvements with a greater focus on global metrics to measure academic quality which in turn was feeding a beneficial cycle of improvements.

Dangerous mutations within Pakistan's jihadi infrastructure

NICHOLAS SCHMIDLE, fellow at the New America Foundation states that a profound change had occured in the dynamic between the Pakistan-army and ISI on the one-hand and their jihadi clients on the other and within the jihadis between the old guard which acted on behalf of the state and the new guard which sought to overthrow the state leading to the kidnap and murder of Khalid Khwaja an important and outspoken player in the jihadi firmament.
In an article in The New Republic, "In a Ditch", he attributes this to the formation of the Pakistani Taliban from the rank and file of the traditional jihadi organizations after the storming of Islamabad's Red Mosque in 2007 and their deep mistrust of traditional authorities such as intelligence agencies, tribal structures, and mainstream Islamist parties. He also cautions that these mutant, smaller outfits were less amenable to bribes, negotiations and settlements and hence were even more dangerous than their creators.

Bandung 55 comes to age!!

SHYAM SARAN, fellow at the Center for Policy Research and former Indian Foreign Secretary, calls upon India to make relations with Indonesia, a G-20 power and neighbor, the centrepiece of its Look East policy pointing to commonalities such as plural, diverse, secular democratic polity, cultural affinities buffeted by religious extremism. In an article in Business Standard, "Rising Indonesia", he states that it was incumbent upon India to upgrade its economic and security partnership with Indonesia beyond the current joint maritime patrols to grow naval capabilities and shape an open, inclusive and loosely structured security architecture in Asia.
 

Test of Effectiveness for the G-20

ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN, fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics states that while the monopoly on power and influence wielded by the west was being broken for real with the G20, what was most significant was the impact of the de-cartelization of power and influence on the role of ideas.  In an op-ed in The Business Standard, "The G-20, Power, and Ideas", he states that the fate of two bad ideas (i) western leadership of the IMF and the World Bank and (ii) indispensability of the Doha round to the health of the world economy, could serve as a testing ground for the proposition that the G-20 might be better for the marketplace of ideas than the G-7.

New Delhi's maritime agenda

RORY MEDCALF of the Lowy Institute states that the Indian navy is growing in potency, reach and stated ambition with its expanding capabilities and its demonstrated maritime leadership within the Indian Ocean. In an op-ed at the Wall Street Journal, "India Ahoy", he states that New Delhi would benefit from strengthening practical cooperation with navies of Australia, Indonesia, Korea and Vietnam and showing greater leadership to fulfil its maritime vision of the Indian Ocean as India's sphere of influence.

Beijing's maritime ambitions

CHRIS RAHMAN, fellow of Maritime Strategy and Security at the University of Woolongong explores the central tenets of China’s maritime security agenda and states that Beijing’s maritime ambitions and behavior indicate a bid for geopolitical pre-eminence in East Asia. In a policy analysis for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, "China's maritime strategic agenda", he argues that the Chinese navy's growing ability to deny access to East Asian seas in a crisis or conflict, disrupting the security system led by US Pacific Command rather than its blue water capabilities most threatens regional order and harmony at seas.

Expansion of HUJI operations

ANIMESH ROUL, Director of the Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict, states that the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (Movement of Islamic Holy War) has 

developed into an international jihadi group that appears ready to demonstrate its global reach well beyond its traditional operational zone in Bangladesh, India and Kashmir. In a Jamestown article, "HuJI Operations Expand Beyond the Indian Subcontinent", he states that recent arrests of HuJI operatives in Chicago and Bangladesh indicate the movement’s jihad is spilling out of the Indian subcontinent.

Reviving the Raj

C. RAJAMOHAN calls for an elevation in the partnership on defence and security between Washington and New Delhi stating that such a partnership would help constitute a neo-Curzonian Raj that could share the burdens of ordering the Eastern Hemisphere in the 21st century, like it did at the turn of the 20th century. In an article for the American Interest, "The Return of the Raj", he alludes to the four elements of the colonial British Raj -  expeditionary tradition, military surplus, security system for smaller states and the Great Game to buttress his argument for an enhanced security partnership in the Indian Ocean and beyond.