Showing posts with label Sciences Po Paris. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sciences Po Paris. Show all posts

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Chongqing vs Guangdong


FRANCOIS GODEMENT, YANG CHAN, JEAN-PIERRE CABESTAN, JÉRÔME DOYON, ROMAIN LAFARGUETTE of the Asia Centre, Sciences Po, analyze content in Chinese language publications in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan to state that China's Faustian pact of miraculous export growth in exchange for huge external dependence was unravelling and rebalancing of the economy towards domestic growth was not necessarily easy as much of China’s domestic investment went into massive infrastructure projects and real estate deals which did not necessarily enhance consumer demand.
In a China Analysis article for the European Council for Foreign Relations, "One or two Chinese models?", they document the emergence of two economic models, a Chongqing model led by Bo Xilai and supported by Xi Jinping and Zhou Yongkang, characterized by massive infrastructure spending that could be recouped in the long-term through economic growth and a Guangdong model led by Wang Yang supported by Hu Jintao and Li Keqiang, characterized by a legal and market-based transition. These were further complicated by the jostling for key positions by these factions in the politburo standing committee.
They also state that although it was hard to predict how the debate could unfold, it was clear that China was investing into the next wave of export-led growth, mobilising its inland assets and negating the effects of rising wages, labor shortages and ageing. They caution that a slowdown in international demand could make these investments very risky and the debate could transcend economics into power politics and how best to preserve the legitimacy of the CCP rule against strong headwinds.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Chinese checkers in Central Asia

FRANCOIS GODEMENT, JérôME Doyon, Jean-Pierre Cabestan, Marie-Hélène Schwoob, Martina Bassan of the Asia Centre, Sciences Po, analyze content in Chinese language publications in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan to argue that Central Asia with a population of 66 million and source of more than 10 percent of China's oil and gas imports was fast becoming a laboratory for Chinese foreign policy.
In a China Analysis article for the European Council for Foreign Relations, "The New Great Game in Central Asia", they state that Beijing had set its sights on Central Asia as it became increasingly important as a lower-risk source of oil and gas, a market for consumer goods and core of the Shanghai Co-operation Organization (SCO). They state that Beijing could play an increasing role in Central Asian geopolitics by mobilising its oil companies and forex reserves to counterbalance the influence of Washington and Tokyo in the energy sector and integrate further into the infrastructure and transportation sector.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Dìyuán zhèngzhì

FRANCOIS GODEMENT, director at Asia Centre, Sciences Po, analyzes content in Chinese language publications in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan to state that Beijing's defensive and cautious approach based on conflict avoidance was a temporary strategy intended to be applied while it rose and it would run its writ unconstrained once its ascent was complete. In a China Analysis article for the European Council for Foreign Relations, "Geopolitics on Chinese terms", he states that the concept of Beijing as a responsive stakeholder was getting outdated since it was not interested in norm-setting beyond the principle of non-interference and that the Chinese strategic community itself was in a state of flux with its focus to partnership driven more as a tactic to prevent its own strategic encirclement.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Muslim Brotherhood vs. Al-Qaeda

Jean-Pierre Filiu, Professor at Sciences Po Paris analyzes the historical competition between Al Qaeda and the Muslim brotherhood for the leadership of the overall Islamist movement as an organizational and ideological alternative to the ruling secular regimes in the Arab world and elsewhere. In an article in Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, a Hudson Institute publication, "The Brotherhood vs. Al-Qaeda: A Moment Of Truth?", he states that the Muslim Brotherhood movement, and especially Hamas, has achieved significant political gains and established a considerably broad political base by championing itself as the leader of a nationalist version of jihad, with deep roots in a people and a territory while al-Qaeda’s ideology of “global jihad” seems increasingly out of touch with Muslim reality and the very Muslim populations it seeks to mobilize.