Pax Americana along the South China Sea

ROBERT KAPLAN, fellow at the Center for a New American Security states that the China's advantageous hub-like geography abutting Central Asia, South-East Asia and East Asia has been mostly overlooked in any analysis of Chinese economic dynamism or strategic assertiveness and although its seaboard was as extensive as its continental interior, it faced a far tougher proposition at sea. In an op-ed in The New York Times, "The Geography of Chinese Power", he opines that a Chinese absorption of Taiwan would be considered a failure of U.S. power by the states in the Pacific and a strengthened U.S. air and sea presence in Oceania presented a compromise between resisting a Greater China at all costs and assenting to a future in which the Chinese Navy policed the first island chain.

Revolution in higher education

BEN WILDAVSKY, fellow at the Ewing Marion Kauffman foundation states that globalization of universities had resulted in a shake-up of the old order in higher education with wide-ranging benefits for all including increased mobility and availability of human capital, scientific talent and greater free trade in minds and ideas. In a discussion organized by the Carnegie Council on his book, "The Great Brain Race: How Global Universities Are Reshaping the World", he points out that mobility of students, cross-national scientific research and branch campuses had increased significantly in the past decade. He opines that a lot of countries now saw a thriving university system as their pathway to innovation and growth and this had resulted in increasing academic investments, partnerships and quality improvements with a greater focus on global metrics to measure academic quality which in turn was feeding a beneficial cycle of improvements.

Dangerous mutations within Pakistan's jihadi infrastructure

NICHOLAS SCHMIDLE, fellow at the New America Foundation states that a profound change had occured in the dynamic between the Pakistan-army and ISI on the one-hand and their jihadi clients on the other and within the jihadis between the old guard which acted on behalf of the state and the new guard which sought to overthrow the state leading to the kidnap and murder of Khalid Khwaja an important and outspoken player in the jihadi firmament.
In an article in The New Republic, "In a Ditch", he attributes this to the formation of the Pakistani Taliban from the rank and file of the traditional jihadi organizations after the storming of Islamabad's Red Mosque in 2007 and their deep mistrust of traditional authorities such as intelligence agencies, tribal structures, and mainstream Islamist parties. He also cautions that these mutant, smaller outfits were less amenable to bribes, negotiations and settlements and hence were even more dangerous than their creators.

Bandung 55 comes to age!!

SHYAM SARAN, fellow at the Center for Policy Research and former Indian Foreign Secretary, calls upon India to make relations with Indonesia, a G-20 power and neighbor, the centrepiece of its Look East policy pointing to commonalities such as plural, diverse, secular democratic polity, cultural affinities buffeted by religious extremism. In an article in Business Standard, "Rising Indonesia", he states that it was incumbent upon India to upgrade its economic and security partnership with Indonesia beyond the current joint maritime patrols to grow naval capabilities and shape an open, inclusive and loosely structured security architecture in Asia.
 

Test of Effectiveness for the G-20

ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN, fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics states that while the monopoly on power and influence wielded by the west was being broken for real with the G20, what was most significant was the impact of the de-cartelization of power and influence on the role of ideas.  In an op-ed in The Business Standard, "The G-20, Power, and Ideas", he states that the fate of two bad ideas (i) western leadership of the IMF and the World Bank and (ii) indispensability of the Doha round to the health of the world economy, could serve as a testing ground for the proposition that the G-20 might be better for the marketplace of ideas than the G-7.

New Delhi's maritime agenda

RORY MEDCALF of the Lowy Institute states that the Indian navy is growing in potency, reach and stated ambition with its expanding capabilities and its demonstrated maritime leadership within the Indian Ocean. In an op-ed at the Wall Street Journal, "India Ahoy", he states that New Delhi would benefit from strengthening practical cooperation with navies of Australia, Indonesia, Korea and Vietnam and showing greater leadership to fulfil its maritime vision of the Indian Ocean as India's sphere of influence.

Beijing's maritime ambitions

CHRIS RAHMAN, fellow of Maritime Strategy and Security at the University of Woolongong explores the central tenets of China’s maritime security agenda and states that Beijing’s maritime ambitions and behavior indicate a bid for geopolitical pre-eminence in East Asia. In a policy analysis for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, "China's maritime strategic agenda", he argues that the Chinese navy's growing ability to deny access to East Asian seas in a crisis or conflict, disrupting the security system led by US Pacific Command rather than its blue water capabilities most threatens regional order and harmony at seas.

Expansion of HUJI operations

ANIMESH ROUL, Director of the Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict, states that the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (Movement of Islamic Holy War) has 

developed into an international jihadi group that appears ready to demonstrate its global reach well beyond its traditional operational zone in Bangladesh, India and Kashmir. In a Jamestown article, "HuJI Operations Expand Beyond the Indian Subcontinent", he states that recent arrests of HuJI operatives in Chicago and Bangladesh indicate the movement’s jihad is spilling out of the Indian subcontinent.

Reviving the Raj

C. RAJAMOHAN calls for an elevation in the partnership on defence and security between Washington and New Delhi stating that such a partnership would help constitute a neo-Curzonian Raj that could share the burdens of ordering the Eastern Hemisphere in the 21st century, like it did at the turn of the 20th century. In an article for the American Interest, "The Return of the Raj", he alludes to the four elements of the colonial British Raj -  expeditionary tradition, military surplus, security system for smaller states and the Great Game to buttress his argument for an enhanced security partnership in the Indian Ocean and beyond.

LeT in Pakistan's strategy

ASHLEY TELLIS of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace states that Lashkar-e-Taiba's global presence and its sponsorship by the Pakistani military and ISI due to a similar ethnic composition and ideological sympathies enhanced the prospect of major war and global consequences. In an article for Yale Global, "Pakistan and the Afghanistan End Game", he states that Washington had now reached the conclusion that LeT represents a threat to America’s national interests while Pakistan's military leaders continued to harbor the illusion that their current strategy of unleashing terrorism would enervate India, push it out of Afghanistan, and weaken US stabilization efforts there and such a strategy would come to nought.

Moscow-Chechnya-Kabul-Islamabad-Karachi link

PREM MAHADEVAN of the Center for Security Studies in Zurich states that the Moscow bombings were on one level motivated by local considerations such as revenge for assassination of Chechen terrorists, while also being linked on another level to the shifts in the Afghanistan in the backdrop of Moscow agreeing to facilitate the resupply of NATO forces through the Northern Distribution network. In a commentary for ISN Security Watch, "Fallout of a New Great Game?", he posits that the new resupply route would reduce NATO dependence on Pakistani supply routes and hence significantly lower transit fees for Islamabad, which could explain the sudden drop in Taliban attacks on the convoys and also cautions Moscow to brace itself for more terrorist attacks in the wake of intensification of the war in Afghanistan.

Strategic diffidence

DOMINIQUE MOISI, advisor of the French Institute of International Affairs (IFRI) and visiting professor at Harvard University draws parallels between a strategically diffident New Delhi and Washington of the 1920s to state that India continued to remain ill at ease in the projection of strategic power. In an opinion piece in The Scotsman, "India still lacks practice in power game", he states that India's unease about strategic power, and its resemblance to a gigantic EU reflected its ongoing search for a new international identity and that India lacked both the means and the ambition to be a second China and that was a further reason for the west to engage and invest in India.

The nuclear hermit

RORY MEDCALF, director of International Security at the Lowy Institute argues that New Delhi's nuclear-weapons posture characterized by a minimum credible nuclear deterrent, no-first use policy could be a model to emulate for other states. In an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal, "India's nuclear example", he calls for closer U.S.-India strategic ties to ensure India's strategic arsenal remained small and the world could not afford to leave New Delhi out of the non-proliferation and nuclear security tent.

Kisan inquilab!!

RAJIV KUMAR, director of ICRIER calls for a liberation of the kisan through the facilitating the entry of private, cooperative or commercial investors including foreign multi-product retail companies into agriculture to establish their agro-procurement operations for the Indian domestic and export markets. In an opinion piece in Mint, "Liberating the farmer", he states that dis-intermediation in agriculture, enhanced investments in logistics and technologies, alongwith Government switching its role from that of a supplier of services and inputs to that of regulator could bring about massive productivity gains in the agricultural sector.

Pole positions in clean-energy

The Pew Environment Group led by Director JOSHUA REICHERT analyze trends in the clean energy sector within the G-20 economies over the past 5 years and are sanguine about the sector that is forecast to grow by 25% to $200 billion in 2010 on the back of a prioritization on clean energy funding by the G-20 governments. In a report titled “WHO’S WINNING THE CLEAN ENERGY RACE? Growth, Competition and Opportunity in the World’s Largest Economies”, they state that nations such as China, Brazil, U.K, Germany and Spain with their strong, national clean energy policies were leading the clean energy economy sweepstakes and other countries would need to more actively evaluate policies to stimulate clean energy investment and compete effectively for clean energy jobs and manufacturing.

Attacking terror through narco funding angle

MICHAEL JACOBSON and MATTHEW LEVITT of the The Washington Institute's Stein program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence point to the increasing linkages between terrorist organizations and organized crime networks with about 60 per cent of terrorist organizations connected to drug trafficking which generated  $322 billion in sales and additional ancillary revenues. In an article , "Tracking Narco-Terrorist Networks: The Money Trail", they state that this presented an opportunity for increasing international co-operation since it would convert the terrorism problem the semantics over which states differed into a law and order problem which would be easier to gain trans-national co-operation against.

Fade Britannia!!

CHRISTOPHER HILL of the University of Cambridge cautions that the financial crisis had resulted in tough foreign policy choices for Britain and recommends depersonalising British foreign policy and grabbing the opportunity provided by the Lisbon Treaty to shape European diplomacy. In an article for Chatham House' publication, The World Today, "British Foreign Policy Priorities: Tough Choices", he lists anti-terrorism, foreign office and its attendant diplomatic network and a resizing of armed forces as key priorities in the wake of the financial crisis.

The end-game in Afghanistan

In a round-table discussion on Afghanistan organized by the Takshashila Foundation, SUMIT GANGULY, SHANTHIE MARIET D'SOUZA and MUKUL ASHER  provided the U.S., Indian and economic perspectives of the current situation in Af-Pak, implications of a U.S. withdrawal from the region starting 2011 and policy options for India.  The panelists brought out the fact that although New Delhi viewed the U.S. presence as ideal to its own security calculus, it had little leverage in ensuring a continued presence. Washington's and New Delhi's interest in Afghanistan was mostly from a security angle and the economic angle in terms of Central Asian gas reserves was less prominent. New Delhi drew a strong distinction between re-integration of the Taliban, i.e. socio-economic accomodation which it was in favor of and reconciliation which meant a political role for the Taliban in Kabul which it was totally against. In the wake of the targeting of Indian personnel in Afghanistan, New Delhi would not quit although its armed contingent was modest. It would expand its current economic assistance program to include microfinance in partnership with Bangladesh.  One commonly asked question was the idea of promoting nationalism among the Baloch, Pashtun and Sindhi communities in Pakistan as a response.

Fixing the fiefdom

MUKUL ASHER states that the main function of the Indian Railways was to provide rail transport related services with the least economic resource costs to the society and that they had to rely on multiple options including internal projects, contracts and PPP to deliver on the revenue target of 3% of the GDP. In an opinion piece in DNA, "For PPPs to work, Railways must change mindset", he concludes that the push towards PPP was doomed to fail in the absence of multiple enabling measures including accrual-based accounting, modern budgeting and management information systems, competition, revamped incentive structures and absorption of new technologies.

Consequences of Af-Pak failure

BHARAT VERMA, Editor of the Indian Defence Review paints a pessimistic picture of an Asia in 2020 engulfed by authoritarian regimes such as Islamic fundamentalists, communist dictatorships, military junta and non-state actors who would then redraw international boundaries. In an article, "Unprepared and Unwilling", he states that the situation was a Catch-22 with neither the West nor India could prevail without each other's assistance and calls for India to provide boots on the ground in Af-Pak in exchange for a change in U.S. focus towards Islamabad as otherwise India would be faced with a simultaneous threat on two-fronts and an internal insurgency.