Analyzing Pakistan

Experts led by STEPHEN COHEN of the Brookings Institution present a grim but realistic picture of Pakistan which was failing along multiple dimensions with a rapidly deteriorating law and order situation, while analyzing potential future scenarios. In a series of analyses presented in Bellagio, Italy, "Pakistan's Future: The Bellagio Papers", they question the will of the Pakistani elite to make structural and ideological changes that would allow it to become a state at peace with itself and its neighbors while discounting the capability of outside powers such as the U.S. to transform Pakistan.

Disputed hydrocarbons

GUO RONGXING of the Regional Science Association of China at the Peking University analyzes critical issues relating to the management of exploitation of

seabed hydrocarbons in the disputed regions of the East China Sea. In an analysis for the Brookings Institution, "Territorial Disputes and Seabed Petroleum Exploitation: Some Options for the East China Sea", he examines the factors that have limited collaboration between China and Japan in exploring and extracting the resources and outlines potential principles to enhance Sino-Japanese interaction.

Sick man on the Nile

DAVID SCHENKER, director at the Washington Institute's Program on Arab Politics traces the decline of Cairo's regional stature stating that Egyptian dominance of the Middle East and the Nile basin in Africa was increasingly being questioned while Egypt was increasingly turning inward. In an opinion piece in The Weekly Standard, "Sick Man on the Nile", he cautions that a weakening Egypt would further complicate U.S. regional security architecture in the Middle East in the wake of  reorientation in Ankara and Beirut away from the West and a strengthened Iran-Syria axis and recommends initiatives to reverse a weakening of Egyptian power in the region.

Smart urbanization

NICK PENNELL of Booz & Company recommends greater focus on urban sustainability to make a concerted effort on reducing CO2 emissions by 50% over the next 30 years through investments of $30T in energy efficient housing, construction, transportation and logistics systems, transforming cities into hotbeds of ecological innovation and improving energy security. In a study conducted jointly with the World Worldlife Fund, "Reinventing the City: Three Prerequisites for Greening Urban infrastructures", they recommend a mix of urban planning to make the right sustainable choices, innovative financing and technology to achieve global climate change goals.

Pushing back.... softly

RORY MEDCALF, director of International Security Program at the Lowy Institute argues that a mix of development, deterrence and diplomacy could help New Delhi maintain an assertive posture without provoking Beijing.  In an opinion piece in The Australian, "Subtlety would help India rival China's clout", he states that New Delhi could pursue an assymetric strategy against Beijing in the maritime, cyber and nuclear realms similar to Beijing's strategy against Washington.

Gas in the Horn of Africa

GREGORY R COPLEY, founder-President of the International Strategic Studies Association states that the recent discovery of natural gas around Ethiopia had the potential to alter the geopolitics of the region around the Red Sea/Horn of Africa with consequences for the sea lines of communication. In an ISN Security Watch article, "In the Red Sea region, the Age of Gas Begins in Earnest", he declares that the recent spate of discoveries of natural gas in the Horn as well as broadly around the world could transform the global energy markets, shifting to a "Gas Age" with influx of new energy wealth for the Horn of Africa that could also lead to a glut in supply within a decade with consequent collapse in the price of gas and petroleum.

India's history-geopolitics linkage

ROBERT KAPLAN of the Center for a New American Security analyzes the millenial history of India contrasting it with that of China and states that India would emerge as the key Eurasian pivot state because of its effect on relations between the United States and China. In a CNAS report "South Asia's Geography of Conflict", he provides an analysis of New Delhi's worldview  based on the geopolitics and geographical history of South Asia cautioning that the Washington-New Delhi relationship should not fall victim to the proclivity of U.S. to poor understanding of local histories.

Public private partnership to enhance rural energy access

Balachandra Patil, fellow with the Energy Technology Innovation Policy program at the Belfer Center at Harvard Kennedy School of Government states that 45% of 800 million rural population in India did not have access to electricity highlighting the failure of policies, governance and institutions around delivery of energy to rural India including inefficient targeting of subsidies. He links India's strong entrepreneurial culture, its capabilities in advanced biomass technologies and the global carbon market to propose an alternative framework to improve access to energy for rural India. In a Discussion Paper for the Belfer Center, "Modern Energy Access to All in Rural India: An Integrated Implementation Strategy", the public-private partnership model he proposes entails the creation of rural energy access authorities empowered to enable regulatory policies, deliver rural technologies and provide access of financing, while targeting entrepreneurs rather than the rural households as the end-user, with energy service companies linking rural energy projects to the global market by serving as an aggregator of carbon credits for global trade.