The end-game in Afghanistan

In a round-table discussion on Afghanistan organized by the Takshashila Foundation, SUMIT GANGULY, SHANTHIE MARIET D'SOUZA and MUKUL ASHER  provided the U.S., Indian and economic perspectives of the current situation in Af-Pak, implications of a U.S. withdrawal from the region starting 2011 and policy options for India.  The panelists brought out the fact that although New Delhi viewed the U.S. presence as ideal to its own security calculus, it had little leverage in ensuring a continued presence. Washington's and New Delhi's interest in Afghanistan was mostly from a security angle and the economic angle in terms of Central Asian gas reserves was less prominent. New Delhi drew a strong distinction between re-integration of the Taliban, i.e. socio-economic accomodation which it was in favor of and reconciliation which meant a political role for the Taliban in Kabul which it was totally against. In the wake of the targeting of Indian personnel in Afghanistan, New Delhi would not quit although its armed contingent was modest. It would expand its current economic assistance program to include microfinance in partnership with Bangladesh.  One commonly asked question was the idea of promoting nationalism among the Baloch, Pashtun and Sindhi communities in Pakistan as a response.

Fixing the fiefdom

MUKUL ASHER states that the main function of the Indian Railways was to provide rail transport related services with the least economic resource costs to the society and that they had to rely on multiple options including internal projects, contracts and PPP to deliver on the revenue target of 3% of the GDP. In an opinion piece in DNA, "For PPPs to work, Railways must change mindset", he concludes that the push towards PPP was doomed to fail in the absence of multiple enabling measures including accrual-based accounting, modern budgeting and management information systems, competition, revamped incentive structures and absorption of new technologies.

Consequences of Af-Pak failure

BHARAT VERMA, Editor of the Indian Defence Review paints a pessimistic picture of an Asia in 2020 engulfed by authoritarian regimes such as Islamic fundamentalists, communist dictatorships, military junta and non-state actors who would then redraw international boundaries. In an article, "Unprepared and Unwilling", he states that the situation was a Catch-22 with neither the West nor India could prevail without each other's assistance and calls for India to provide boots on the ground in Af-Pak in exchange for a change in U.S. focus towards Islamabad as otherwise India would be faced with a simultaneous threat on two-fronts and an internal insurgency.

Asian leadership

KISHORE MAHBUBANI and SIMON CHESTERMAN point to an evolution in Asian thinking characterized by pragmatism and an open attitude towards multilateralism with a focus on effectiveness of institutions rather than their legitimacy and acceptance of Western domination of global institutions. In an article for The Japan Times, "Pragmatic Asia can bolster global stability", they argue that this pragmatic approach has led to an Asian capability for leadership in such diverse challenges as peace and security, climate change, financial regulation, health, and social enterprises.

It takes two to tango!!

Nikolas Gvosdev of the US Naval War College states that although the U.S. intelligence community have agreed that multipolarity would be the future, Washington policymakers had not made the strategic choices necessary to guarantee continued U.S. global leadership such as wooing emerging powers such as Brazil and India that were not currently aligned either with the Euro-Atlantic West or with China. In an article in The World Politics Review, "Shaping the Multipolar World", he questions the prevailing assumption that at the end of the day, such powers would automatically align with U.S. interests absent a U.S. effort to nurture the relationship.

Dial 311 for deterrence

James Wood Forsyth Jr, Col B. Chance Saltzman, and Gary Schaub Jr discuss the concept of deterrence in international political relations and the diminishing returns with nuclear weapons and state that a small, secure nuclear force had the effect of 'sanctuarizing' the states that possess them. In an article for the Strategic Studies Quarterly, "Remembrance of Things Past The Enduring Value of Nuclear Weapons", they argue that the United States could have nuclear security with a small force of only 311 nuclear weapons in their force structure while continuing to maintain stable deterrence irrespective of the behavior of competitors such as Russia or China. They also express skepticism over the practicality of a nuclear zero arguing that nuclear weapons socialize statesmen to the dangers of adventurism and constrained their behavior resulting in a relationship tempered by caution despite the rhetoric of the leaders.

Wait and watch

SUSHANT SAREEN of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses argues that although an American exit from Afghanistan would in the worst case lead to a "terrorists r us" AfPak with India needing to work towards preventing the fallout, it might actually be a good thing in the post 9-11 world. In an IDSA Comments article, "AfPak dialectics can work in India’s favour", he argues that an American exit would ensure enhanced strategic leverage of the US over Pakistan with Pakistan being caught in a Catch-22 situation either bowing to international dictates on rooting jihadists or risk international isolation.

India's strategic role against global jihad

WALID PHARES, Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies states the global salafist jihadi network would continue to expand, co-ordinate and assist each other against their foes most of whom were constrained by a lack of similar co-operation against jihadi terror as well as confusion regarding separatist conflicts which were often construed as resistance movements and not terrorism. In a speech to the Asian Security Conference 2010 at New Delhi, "The Future of Terrorism: Jihadi threat in the Indian Subcontinent", he proposes internationalization of the counter-jihadi strategy where India could play a significant part in the region in integrating the resources of democracies in the region and eventually of all jihadi-targeted countries.

Rise of the Ottoman Phoenix

PHILIP MCCRUM states that a confluence of factors such as size, geography, religion and ethnicity were conferring Turkey with greater regional authority guaranteeing the rise of the Ottoman phoenix enhancing its national interests. In an analysis for the International Relations and Security Network (ISN), "Turkey’s Expanding Geopolitical Reach",he predicts that Turkey's strategic position at the crossroads of a diversified east-west natural gas supply network as well as its leadership position in the Muslim world as the largest Islamic economic power ensured greater geostrategic significance that even its domestic squabbles could not overcome.

Coming into age of the SCO

DAVID SPEEDIE, Director of U.S. Global Engagement Program at the Carnegie Council states that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) that was established in 2001 could no longer be dismissed as a sub-regional force given its toehold in Central Asia and potential to exert influence over 20% of the world's proven oil reserves and 40% of natural gas resources. In a Carnegie Council article, "Good Neighbours? The Shanghai Co-operation Organization" he concedes that a potential inclusion of Iran in the SCO would result in the organization being seen as an anti-American alliance and echo NATO's eastward expansion in the 90s and calls for increasing NATO's engagement with the SCO.

Liberal bloc

MARK LEONARD, Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations states that Beijing's diplomacy could be characterized as defensive multilateralism, where it joined international organizations such as the UN, WTO etc. to protect its own interests rather than to support the broader goals of those institutions and this approach had been relatively successful in changing the global order and reducing international pressure on states such as North Korea, Myanmar and Iran. In an op-ed in the Süddeutsche Zeitung,"How to deal with a more assertive China?", he calls for a more assertive Western approach that would preserve the liberal bias in the international system with the EU and the US acting in concert to break up illiberal international coalitions and focus on integrating states such as India, Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil into the liberal bloc.

Degrading the LeT network

STEPHEN TANKEL of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace profiles the growth of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) network from its origins during the anti-Soviet jihad to its current role as Pakistani military's strategic asset against India with a support network stretched throughout the subcontinent, the Gulf and the West. In a policy brief for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "The Long Arm of Lashkar-e-Taiba", he concludes that the West had to compel Islamabad to use its leverage to prevent any LeT attack against India and also degrade its transnational network.

Aircraft Carriers: Hunter or Hunted?

ARUN PRAKASH, former Chief of Naval Staff tracks the growth of the aircraft carrier as the mainstay of major navies as well as the different paths in the arena of carriers and carrier aviation adopted by the major navies and what could come in the future. In a valedictory address as the Chairman of the National Maritime Foundation, "Aircraft Carriers in the 21st century: Doctrinal, Operational and Technological Challenge", he counters critics of aircraft carriers and states that optimal utilization of carrier deployment for sea control, protection to friendly units, power projection and survivability rendered them invaluable in any military's arsenal and the greater need was to overcome operational, doctrinal and technological challenges.

Festering sore

MUSTAFA QADRI states that the strong public support in Pakistan currently for its war against the Taliban insurgency within its territory arose due to a host of factors including a perception that Pakistan was fighting a war for its  existence, with the armed forces as brave guarantors of national security against foreign actors. In a briefing paper for the Pakistan Security Research Unit,"Public perceptions of Pakistan’s war against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan", he cautions that this prevented the Pakistani society from confronting the very real, and serious infiltration of militant, political Islam into mainstream society and effectively absolved the state and religious leaders from their culpability in creating the very environment that enabled the TTP to form and so rapidly expand throughout the tribal areas.

Counterinsurgency training for Afghans

SUMIT GANGULY, Ngee Ann Kongsi Chair in International Relations at the Rajaratnam School for International Studies, Singapore declares that the most effective and economical way to prepare Afghan troops in counterinsurgency operations was to rely on the Indian Army. In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, "Let India Train The Afghan Army", he states that the Indian Army with its decades of counter-insurgency experience in multiple terrains, training capacities, cheap labor and training costs, cultural similarities, and its record of civil-military relations made it the ideal candidate to train the Afghan national army.

Basic banking in India

BINDU ANANTH and NACHIKET MOR lament the low penetration rate (20%) of bank accounts in India stating that the technology, on-ground capability, cost  and process maturity of banking intermediaries such as business correspondents do not warrant such a low access rate to finance. In an article in Mint, "Basic economic freedom: why can’t we get it done?", they argue that currently no single entity was currently accountable for the low penetration rate and recommend that Finance Minister designate the Reserve Bank of India to own the process, mandate Government payments through business correspondents and to direct banks to set up well-distributed automated access points.

How to remain Sheriff ?

ASHLEY TELLIS of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace calls on the US and the West to pursue twin objectives of deepening globalization while simultaneously investing in preserving its military superiority in the wake of increasing Chinese national power. In a paper for the German Marshall Fund "Power Shift: How the West Can Adapt and Thrive in an Asian Century", he prescribes increasing coordination between the transatlantic allies to ensure deepening economic interdependence, multifaceted diplomatic engagement of Beijing not being hostage to single-issue politics such as human rights etc. and continued enhancement of the national power and the constituent military prowess of the United States as the global arbiter of security.

Lumbering out of policy inertia on India's Financial sector

ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN, fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics recommends greater interaction between the government and the Reserve Bank of India on strategic and long-term issues such as the liberalization of the financial sector and that of the capital account. In an op-ed in The Business Standard, "What Globalization Strategy for India?", he states that a combination of factors such as greater availability of foreign capital seeking higher returns in India and a domestic political economy that favored foreign capital would ensure that India moved to a model based on reliance to foreign capital by default and this called for a jolt out of policy inertia and a greater co-ordination between the key stakeholders on strategic issues.

Planned Urbanization: The Singapore Story

Cheong Koon Hean, CEO of Singapore's Urban Redevelopment Authority draws lessons from Singapore's successful urbanization experience and states that sustainable urban development required first of all, a strategic long-term and forward-looking framework and then a judicious mix of strategic planning, environmental management and pragmatic approaches to technology. In an article for Chatham House monthly, "Future of Cities: Urban Opportunities", she outlines how the long-term framework guided multi-year plans across departments driving targeted infrastructure investments that deliver on goals for liveability and sustainability, and also states that these measures would ensure Singapore could deliver a reduction in carbon emissions of 16% by 2020.

Instability in Yemen

Ginny Hill, fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, states that Yemen's window of opportunity to shape a future based on a post-oil economy was narrowing and that Western governments needed to work towards an effective regional approach alongwith the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. In a briefing paper for the Chatham House, "Yemen: Fear of Failure", she cautions that future instability in Yemen could expand a lawless zone around the Horn of Africa with attendant piracy, smuggling and violent jihad, with implications for the security of shipping routes and the transit of oil through the Suez Canal.