Pipelines and Energy

Gal Luft, director at the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) cautions the U.S. to curb its enthusiasm towards the Nabucco pipeline arguing that it served as Iran’s economic lifeline and would imperil American interests although it reduced European dependence on Russian gas. In an article for the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University, “How to beat Iran’s pipeline strategy”, he also calls on the U.S. to cooperate with India on the development of a thorium nuclear fuel cycle.

Fighting corruption in Afghanistan

Christina Larson, editor at Foreign Policy states that China's handling of minority affairs had not changed since the days of Mao although every other aspect of life in the People's Republic had changed. In a Foreign Policy op-ed “China's Minority Problem--And Ours”, she states that Beijing may not have the option of plugging its ears to minority dissatisfaction for much longer arguing that the political system is not configured to protect minorities from abuse and may lead to worsening ethnic tensions unless Beijing relooked its policies on ethnic minorities.

Unconventional partners in nuclear sphere: India, Australia

Amandeep Gill, visiting fellow at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation and Rory Medcalf, director of International Security at the Lowy Institute argue that an innovative partnership between Australia and India would help erode the entrenched blocs that impede progress on nuclear disarmament. In a policy brief, "Unconventional partners: Australia-India cooperation in reducing nuclear dangers", they recommend a specialised bilateral dialogue, practical cooperation on non-proliferation export controls, promotion of Indian involvement in the so-called Australia Group to raise comfort levels between New Delhi and other such arrangements.

The nuclear headache

Bruce Riedel, senior fellow at Brookings' Saban Center for Middle East Policy claims that the Pakistan army’s offensive in Waziristan and the growing backlash among the public against the Taliban and al Qaeda offered Washington an opportunity to improve its image in Pakistan. In an article, "Pakistan, the next nuclear nightmare", he states that if the Obama administration showed continued resolve in Afghanistan, Pakistan would follow suit against the Taliban.

Insurgency's supply routes

Matthew Levitt, Director at The Washington Institute's Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, analyzes the often-overlooked economic angle of insurgents' use of third party countries for training, fundraising, and transit using Syria as an example for Iragi insurgents. In a Perspectives of Terrorism article, Foreign Fighters and Their Economic Impact: A Case Study of Syria and al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), the author states that shutting down the facilitation networks to starve the insurgency of its supply of material, funds and manpower while expanding the legitimate economy to compensate for the contraction of the illicit economy were critical components of any counter-insurgency campaign.

Soft vs Hard power in Afghanistan

Harsh Pant of King's College, London claims that India’s attempt to leverage its ‘soft power’ in Afghanistan by focusing on civilian matters is becoming increasingly risky in the wake of the attacks on the Indian embassy in Kabul and that could force a change in strategy. In a commentary for ISN Security Watch, "India in Afghanistan", he states that the debate on how to approach Afghanistan is not close to a resolution in Indian political corridors, any change in strategy will have serious implications for the future of India’s rise as global power and regional security in South Asia.

Trans-pacific partnership

Daniel Sneider, director of Stanford University's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and Richard Katz, editor of the Oriental Economist Report state that U.S - Japan alliance would continue to be the cornerstone of the new DPJ Government. In an article in Foreign Policy, "The New Asianism", they seek to allay any fears of a fundamental shift in the DPJ stance towards security and economic affairs and highlight that Japan is taking steps to ensure that its not relegated as a regional leader in East Asia.

U.S. Climate change pressure - cyclone in India

Arvind Panagariya, Professor at Columbia University, states that developed countries have chosen to play strategically on climate change by framing the negotiation in terms of mitigating commitments rather than emission rights that could let them claim the moral high ground for large cuts and yet walk away with maximum rights to pollute in the future. In an article for Brookings Institution, “Climate Change and India: Is There a Basis for U.S. Pressure?“, he calls on the developed countries to substantially cut their emissions before asking developing countries to commit to mitigation.

Battling terrorist ideology

Michael Jacobson, fellow at The Washington Institute of Near East Policy’s Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence states that former terrorists were best-placed to deliver a narrative to terrorists that could contradict Al-Qaeda’s single narrative. In an article “Terrorist Drop-outs: One Way of Promoting a Counter-Narrative” he presents various examples where former terrorists and extremists contributed to reducing terrorist violence and present the terror drop-outs as a potent weapon for Governments in their battle of ideas against terrorist ideologies.

Change in the Land of the Rising Sun

Yukio Hatoyama, President of Japan states that the creation of an East Asian community to support economic cooperation and national security in the wake of declining U.S. power and expanding Chinese power was one of his goals as President. In an op-ed in Wall Street Journal “'My Political Philosophy' The Banner of Party Politician Ichiro Hatoyama” he argues that the underlying structures required for the formation of a regional economic bloc were already in place and that the way to reduce bilateral tensions was to move towards greater regional integration targeting the establishment of a future common Asian currency.

Linkage between public opinion and terrorism

Alan B. Krueger, Assistant Secretary at the U.S. Department of Treasury and Jitka Malečková of the Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences examine the effect of public opinion in a country on the number of terrorist attacks perpetrated by its citizens or groups against other countries by analyzing Gallup poll data of public opinion in 19 Middle Eastern and North African countries who disapprove of the leadership of nine world powers. In an article “Attitudes and Action: Public Opinion and the Occurrence of International Terrorism “ in Science they refute the assertion that terrorists act independently of their countrymen’s attitudes toward the leadership of the countries they attack.

The Long Road to ‘Chindia’

Bernt Berger, researcher at the Stiftung Wissenschaft and Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs) states that China and India are once again confronted with multiple issues that strain their path of gradual rapprochement. In an article for ISN Security Watch, “The Long Road to ‘Chindia’ “, claims that the rapid growth of bilateral trade between India and China had not eased the wary perceptions arising out of the unsolved territorial dispute, and that a common interest in global affairs such as climate change could help bring the Chinese and Indian strategic community closer

Fighting corruption in Afghanistan

Michael E O’ Hanlon, Director of Research at Brookings Institution and Jane Harman, member of the U.S. Congress lament that anti-corruption campaign had been largely overlooked in the west’s strategy to address the rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. In an article for Brookings Institution, “Troops to Progress on Afghanistan’s Corruption“, they argue that the counterinsurgency strategy would not succeed if a larger anti-corruption effort including such measures as ombudsmen at various levels to handle citizen complaints and firing of corrupt officials, were not implemented.

Asia-Pacific Economic Security in the aftermath of the crisis of 2008

François Godement, fellow of the European Council on Foreign Relations, traces the origins of Asian regional integration cautioning that although China may be grooming its currency for capital convertibility and creating a modest role for the yuan as a reserve currency, economic security may not necessarily be improved due to China’s opacity and the fact that Asian currencies are as close to a dollar peg as they’ve ever been. In a paper for Institute for National Policy Research, Taiwan “Asia-Pacific Security in the context of global economic crisis”,  at the Asia-Pacific Security Forum 2009, he states that Asian based approach to enhanced economic security would be complementary to global approaches and would also involve expanded roles for Asian countries like China and India in international institutions.

Revitalizing the dragon

Evan S. Medeiros, analyst at the Center for Asia Pacific Policy at RAND institute analyzes the multiple layers that constitute China’s foreign policy strategy, and assesses the challenges for China in implementing its strategy and implications for U.S. policy and interests. In a RAND monograph China’s International Behaviour - Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification, he posits that Chinese leaders have concluded that their external security environment is favorable and that the next 15 to 20 years represented a “strategic window of opportunity” for China to achieve its leading objective of national revitalization through continued economic, social, military and political development while deftly leveraging the current international system.

North Asia’s nuclear tangle

Rory Medcalf, Director at the Lowy Institute for International Policy focuses on the complications  in North Asia in the wake of a renewed push by Washington towards nuclear disarmament. In an article “Wicked weapons North Asia’s nuclear tangle”, the author provides the background of the intersecting interests of North Asian powers such as the U.S., China, and Japan and highlights potential trajectories that demand mutual and coordinated concessions of Washington, Beijing, Tokyo.

China’s Myanmar Dilemma

China’s Myanmar Dilemma, the latest International Crisis Group report, examines Chinese national and provincial policy towards Myanmar and its implications for international approaches toward Myanmar. The authors suggest that China’s influence on Myanmar may have been overstated and call for continued pressure by the West in the Security Council and other fora while emphasizing to China the unsustainable nature of its current policies.

Terror’s Training Ground

Ayesha Siddiqua claims that South Punjab has become a jihadist hub due to a potent mix of economic stagnation, Islamist fundamentalism, and ideological indoctrination at madrassas. In an article “Terror’s Training Ground” in the Daily News, she also claims that the authorities continue to be in denial while the number of madrassas in the Punjab rose to 3000+, converting people to Salafism and training jihadis and the state apparatus as well as the political parties have tieups with the militant groups. She concludes that a reexamination of the strategic partnership between the militants and the state apparatus as well as investments in social development would be the way to go about fixing the problem, rather than military deployment.

Positioning climate change

Does the narrative matter in international negotiations??
Arvind Subramanian of the Perterson Institute for International Economics draws lessons from the Trade Related International Property Rights (TRIPS) negotiations in the Uruguay Round of 20 years ago where the IP lobby in the US succeeded in framing the narrative in moralistic terms. This forced the developing countries to be defensive during negotiations ultimately resulting in agreements favoring the developed countries although they may have had a weaker case. In an article in the Business Standard "Climate Change-Winning the narrative" he advocates a stand for India that should at least avoid losing the battle of the climate change narrative and avoid being portrayed as the bad guy. A starting point is to offer constructive engagement.